Europe and China take the climate reins
In the space of just a week during this year’s UN General Assembly, representatives of the world’s largest single market and the world’s secondlargest economy each laid their climate cards on the table. One need not be a national intelligence analyst to parse the results: The EU and China have both committed to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, thus creating common ground for much deeper cooperation.
To be sure, these commitments will need to be backed by concrete policies. But even words carry power. Neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is known for hyperbole or making major declarations without prior deliberation. If they set a concrete target, that means they have some sense of how to reach it. Moreover, it is not as though it will be easy for the EU’s 27 member states to agree on a more ambitious 2030 target that is in line with its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. European leaders are well aware of the many vested interests standing ready to oppose the new goal. Nor is it easy for China’s leadership to announce that it will hit peak emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Reorienting an economy as large as China’s is no small task. Yet both powers recognize that the reality of climate change makes an economic transition inevitable, and that whoever moves first will have a major competitive advantage for decades to come.
Overhauling an economy at the speed needed to reduce national emissions in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement has never been done and will require strong distributed leadership of a kind that is already coming into view. Countries, regions, cities, and major business and financial actors have all started to set net-zero targets of their own. Five years after the Paris accord was signed, these commitments indicate that a critical mass is building. Chinese and European leaders recognize that this is the moment to press ahead with concrete, detailed plans of action.
There is no one-size-fits-all plan. Some plans are about technological changes, but many other transitions will require the ownership of citizens, a stronger emphasis on restoring nature or a systemic approach. We can all learn from each other’s experiences along the way. Like China, the EU will need to demonstrate how it can meet its long-term targets. The European Commission has determined that a 55 percent emissions reduction by 2030 — at least — will be necessary to reach its climateneutrality target. It now must win the support of all 27 member states. The sooner a deal is reached, the better the EU’s chances of leapfrogging ahead.
With the same goal in mind, China and the EU will have ample opportunity to deepen their cooperation. Both are confronting similar challenges when it comes to recovering from the coronavirus disease crisis.
If China and the EU do hit their next major benchmarks, the global implications will be broad and deep. China, the “factory of the world,” was the single largest exporter and the third-largest importer in 2018. By setting cleaner standards and focusing an all-of-society effort on achieving its net-zero target, it can effect significant change on supply chains spanning Brazil, Australia and Indonesia, as well as entire regions from Africa to the Middle East. Simply put, the world’s governments will need to re-evaluate their long-term economic plans through a green lens.
Coming on the tail of talks with the EU, China’s announcement also reminds us of the vital role that diplomacy has to play.
Even though the US has spent the last four years undermining multilateral institutions, international cooperation is still possible and continues to offer profound benefits for those who engage in it.
Regardless of how quickly the US can return to the international community, the global trajectory is clear: Net-zero is the destination, and all leaders would do well to chart their course accordingly.