Rebuilding social trust in post-COVID America
At first glance, the coronavirus pandemic has deepened economic divisions in the US. It has magnified income and social inequality, and highlighted many longstanding systemic problems. For example, women are more adversely affected than men. Children from poor households are less able to adapt to virtual schooling than those from wealthier families. Experts think that domestic violence and child abuse have risen rapidly during the pandemic, but much of the increase has gone unreported because of the reduction in monitoring due to school closures. Lower-income individuals face higher health risks because many of the factors that worsen COVID-19 consequences are negatively associated with income.
But despite these painful and unevenly distributed costs, could America’s trial by fire during the pandemic help restore the mutual trust needed to improve the economic well-being of all its citizens in the long run? Trust, by which economists mean a person’s confidence in the honesty and integrity of someone they do not personally know, is an essential component of a successful economy. It is also often overlooked. To trust in an economic sense is to believe that the other person is not out to take advantage of you. To lack trust is to feel that you must fight for the maximum share of the pie at every turn.
Trust makes policy compromises possible because all parties understand that the gains will be shared over time, even if not everyone benefits at the moment the agreement is reached. As with a healthy personal relationship, people can take turns getting what they want because they know there will be many future interactions requiring compromise, so things will even out in the long run.
Moreover, empirical evidence shows that trust explains a substantial part of the differences in economic growth across countries, and increases political stability during economic recessions. The ability to cooperate improves outcomes for everyone.
In the US, as opposed to the UK and EU countries, no one is fined for not wearing a mask or monitored to ensure compliance with a quarantine. This of course has obvious downsides. The lack of enforcement and a coordinated response contributed to the thirdhighest infection rate and 12th-highest death rate of any country in the world. But there is also an important upside: People’s behavior reveals their willingness to contribute to public welfare, and not just their fear of penalties for non-compliance. Low-risk individuals adhere to COVID-19 restrictions because they want to, and believe that doing so will help keep others safe as well as themselves. During the pandemic, the healthy majority has paid a high price to protect a vulnerable minority. Because federal and state governments did not coerce compliance, we can say that people paid it willingly, although perhaps not happily.
The effort was not uniform, and not everyone followed the same precautions. But ultimately, tens of millions curtailed their own freedom and quality of life for over a year. This costly effort is notable given widespread fears that America is currently being undermined by populism and self-interest.
It would be a shame if Americans lose sight of this hard-earned silver lining in their assessment of the pandemic. Trust is also transmitted inter-generationally. Parents should remind their children, and teachers should educate their students, about the sacrifices made by millions to keep strangers safe. The US now has a unique opportunity to bolster trust, solidarity and cooperation — and thus to confront the economic challenges ahead.