Bond between ‘presidents for life’
With President Vladimir Putin signing a law last week that could keep him in power until 2036, surpassing even Joseph Stalin’s tenure in office, Russia’s foreign policy is becoming emboldened again. Exhibit A is the Ukraine border, where Moscow has built up a force of about 25,000 troops in a major show of force. Former Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak warned last week that Moscow could intervene to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rise in the region that has been a flashpoint since Russiansympathizing separatists seized swaths of territory there in 2014. While the skirmishes are most likely to die down, that is by no means guaranteed. Putin’s mission since assuming power almost a quarter of a century ago has been to restore Russia’s geopolitical prominence through international gambits such as the annexation of Crimea, his intervention in Syria, and fostering joint economic activities in the disputed islands off Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido.
Putin appears to be firmly entrenched, if not politically impregnable, but numerous challenges persist. The pandemic, for one, has posed a major challenge. Last spring Putin introduced a six-week lockdown that severely hurt the Russian economy. His approval ratings plummeted to a low of 59 percent and the government was forced to ease restrictions, reducing economic damage and shoring up his polling. This underlines that he is far from certain to serve until 2036, especially if his political luck finally goes south fueled by foreign policy misadventure or domestic economic travails. To keep his hold on power, it seems likely that Putin will continue to rely on the political playbook that has served him well so far — namely forging a sense of post-Cold
War patriotism fueled by a growing economy during much of the period. This could have profound implications for international politics, especially given his growing closeness to Chinese President Xi Jinping, another “president for life.”
Xi was given the green light in 2018 to remain in power for an indefinite period after the National People’s Congress approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency that had been in place since the 1990s.
Beijing and Moscow are working more closely together not just to further bilateral interests, but also to hedge against the prospects of a continuing chill in US ties.
The closeness of the relationship between Xi and Putin is a key reason the frost appears unlikely to thaw in Russia’s relations with the West. Putin is increasingly asserting Russian power in other areas of the globe from AsiaPacific to Africa and the Americas. One of the key features of this foreign policy approach is increasing support for longstanding allies who are Western foes, including Venezuela, Syria, North Korea and Iran.
This underlines why the implications of Putin’s long period in office go well beyond the Russian domestic political landscape. With Moscow’s ties with Washington and the wider West so frosty, an even closer economic and political alliance with Xi in Beijing appears likely if both their presidencies extend into the 2030s.