Birth pains of a new order in the Middle East
In a sign of changing times, the list of global threats is now topped by climate change, China and other countries, rather than terrorism, the potential resurgence of Daesh or copycat violent extremists, according to US intelligence officials. The region faces an ever-widening array of threats, not helped by the disruption caused by the pandemic, intensifying great power rivalry and medium powers seeking greater influence in regional affairs — enlisting proxies to sideline national will in favor of external interests. The increasingly visible signs of a warming climate, ecological degradation and water scarcity only further imperil global public health, spark new humanitarian crises, cripple even the most stable societies, compound unmitigated social woes such as inequality, and intensify political instability. In the past decade alone, great power competition in the Middle East has shifted from the messy and costly short-sighted interventions between countries, to sporadic skirmishes or rivalries playing out within nations, on the ground, in the air and in cyberspace. Already, Chinese and Russian technological and military rivalry with the US is fueling new tensions and new escalations, as both countries push to change global norms — by, for instance, normalizing Iran’s regional destabilization agenda or even indirectly supporting its malign activities in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. Elsewhere, a global race to enhance military, cyber, extraterrestrial and other capabilities has only heightened risks, especially where conventional deterrence measures are no longer effective.
The findings of the US intel chiefs and the extrapolations to be made from them in the Arab world are not limited to the military, diplomacy, political or technology spheres. The report also came shortly after an International Monetary
Fund (IMF) forecast an assessment of Middle East economies up to 2023. Last year, the IMF predicted GDP growth of about 3 percent, but as countries slowly recover from the worst of the pandemic that forecast has been revised upwards to 4 percent. Unfortunately, this “recovery” will be divergent, and probably a source of new headaches, since uneven economic development will spark irregular migration from countries the IMF termed “late inoculators” such as Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan, toward the “early inoculators” such as the Gulf states, Morocco and Kazakhstan.
It is unsurprising to see the Middle East written off as a region characterized by pervasive domestic volatility and conflict. Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria top the list of countries of concern; Tehran, for instance, is expected to remain a threat to interests shared by the US and its regional partners. Failure to curb Iranian provocation will only further endanger the wider region as Tehran seeks to project power, entrench its influence, radicalize overseas Shiite populations, deflect international pressure and target perceived threats to its sanctions-riddled regime. Iran’s economy remains in shambles, which limits how Tehran will try to advance its goals — by seeking concessional diplomacy, arming proxies with conventional weapons, not excluding cruise missiles and drones, or advancing its nuclear programs. It is through these that Tehran will remain a major destabilizing force in Iraq, and maintain an influence in Syria, Yemen and even Afghanistan.
In Iraq, while the threat of Daesh has largely receded and dented any prospects of a resurgence of terrorism in the region, the country’s fate remains firmly in the grip of Tehran-backed actors, deeply embedded in its society, economy and political processes. Some of these armed militants have become a vehicle for Iran to launch attacks on bases were US forces and other personnel are located. Threats of continued attacks will serve as some form of leverage as both Washington and Tehran look to enter into talks regarding the latter’s nuclear ambitions and pledges to enrich fissile material beyond the levels agreed in the 2015 nuclear deal.
For Libya, the Government of National Unity (GNU) faces the same security, political and economic challenges that led to the demise of its predecessors and diminished prospects of enduring national reconciliation. For now, a ceasefire holds but Russia, Turkey, Egypt and others will continue to funnel financial, military and material support to local proxies and nonstate actors, which only heightens the risk of more instability and makes renewed fighting an inevitability. Until foreign forces leave Libya, no amount of progress or talks will reduce the risk of conflicts flaring up again.
Lastly, for Syria, while the fighting has subsided save for a few skirmishes, threats remain in the form of humanitarian crises and deniable attacks targeting US forces or Syrian Kurds. The Assad regime will continue to struggle with reestablishing control over all of Syria, including parts now occupied by Turkish forces, extremists and what remains of the opposition. Renewed fighting in the midst of a humanitarian disaster and severe economic decline will spark new waves of irregular migration, creating yet another crisis in a region already drowning in them.
From all the above, it is not difficult to see that our region will face another troubled year. One can still hope, however, that because of all this the region is simply going through the birth pains of a new regional order as many other nations have done before.