What a wonderful world — if we don’t destroy ourselves
Russian forces massing on the border with Ukraine threaten the kind of conflict we’ve seen only a few examples of since the Second World War — the wholesale invasion of one sovereign nation by a more powerful neighbor. Yet the entire planet is embroiled in a plethora of assorted conflicts, with between 40 and 50 ongoing wars. A historically high 80 million people have been forcibly displaced by conflict, a disproportionate number of them hosted in states that are themselves fragile. Over the past decade, global conflict surveys demonstrate a sustained rise in political violence and regionalized conflict, along with a decrease in global cooperation and security. The Middle East is as volatile as ever, with Iran via the Houthis launching armed drone and missile strikes against Saudi Arabia almost every day. Chronic Iranian interference in Lebanon and Iraq has likewise brought these states to the cliff-edge of civil conflict, after months of political dysfunction and economic turmoil. Israeli military experts believe it’s only a matter of time before they’re forced to go on the offensive against Iran and its proxies. In addition to instability in Libya and other parts of North Africa, vast regions of sub-Saharan Africa are plagued by Islamist insurgencies that threaten to topple weak regimes and carve out terrorist empires throughout vast transcontinental ungoverned spaces. Much of Latin America is plagued by sky-high murder rates, due to warring narcotics cartels with private armies capable of outgunning fragile governments.
Ethiopia has recently witnessed mass atrocities, with accusations of systematic rape used as a weapon of war. Meanwhile, the anarchic situation in Myanmar is grimly reminiscent of the early days of the Syria conflict, with hundreds of protesters callously murdered by a military regime with no concept of compromise.
Other than sanctions, the Western world has scant political will to counter major acts of aggression. Limp-wristed statements of condemnation and attempts to appease Chinese and Russian aggression may hasten trends back toward Cold War.
None of these scenarios is necessary or inevitable. Economists argue that all nations benefit when they peaceably increase trade and remove barriers. It’s relatively straightforward to envisage definitive formulas for stability in fragmented nations such as Libya, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, if major powers cooperate in muscular peace efforts.
The fundamental obstacle comes with egotistical politicians such as Putin, Erdogan, Khamenei and Xi, whose efforts to consolidate personal power have become hitched to expansionist overseas agendas — a vicious circle where autocracy and militarism become mutually reinforcing. In the cases of Tehran in Lebanon, Moscow in Libya, and Beijing in Myanmar, these powers relish their ability to wield weaker states as negotiating cards, holding the fate of entire nations hostage to their own cynical interests.
The recipe for escaping this trap is thus not a rush back into Cold War, but intensified efforts by Western nations and allies to revive the rules-based system, and re-empowering conflict resolution institutions, imposing far more stringent consequences for aggression. In terms of economic and military might, Western nations still massively outstrip emergent Asian powers. They must translate this disproportionate power into reinvigorated diplomatic influence.
While many Western nations have increased military expenditure, in Britain, America and other European nations diplomatic and development spending has been slashed.
This emasculation of Western soft power is a catastrophic mistake.
There is a direct relationship between the worldwide epidemic of failing states and the West’s failure to properly invest in global development and diplomacy, or offer assertive support for human rights and accountable governance. Dollar for dollar, spending on developmental support for fragile states can be ten times as effective as spending on military deterrents when it comes to enhancing international stability.
Nevertheless, pariah states will only refrain from military aggression when physical deterrents exist. Hence the need for entities such as NATO, which must be willing to forcibly deter aggression on Europe’s far-eastern fringes in order to prevent the cancer-like contagion of instability and anti-democratic tendencies spreading to the heart of Europe.
The elephant in the room is that, while conflicts threaten some of us, environmental catastrophe threatens us all: Global warming, rising sea-levels, atmospheric pollution, desertification, and the wholesale destruction of ecosystems.
As long as mankind continues behaving like warring tribes, we have no prospects of uniting to confront threats that could wipe us out as a species. We live in a truly wonderful world. Let’s not expend our energies trying to destroy it.