How Iran and Israel are edging closer to the abyss
There is no longer anything new or surprising about Israel and Iran engaging in a shadow war, accompanied by constant streams of aggressive rhetoric flowing between them. Recent acts of belligerence have left an air of inevitability of further and more dangerous escalations. What makes the current relations between the two countries exceptionally dangerous is that, in their different ways, both the Iranian and Israeli political systems are fragile and suffering from chronic internal discord, which makes them more inclined to pursue an aggressive foreign policy, with greater risk of miscalculation.
What is changing things is the rapid and very public escalation from a war of words to words of war, and the readiness of each side to take responsibility for its aggressive actions in a nonchalant manner.
For more than two decades, Israel adhered to its unending diplomatic and military campaign to stop Iran from developing nuclear military capability, while displaying ambiguity when it came to military operations. Gradually this approach is being abandoned, and it leaves open the question whether this is for strategic reasons or has more to do with the domestic political and legal predicaments currently faced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the intention of Washington to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement.
The rivalry between Iran and Israel has been a permanent feature of Middle Eastern politics since 1979. Acquiring nuclear capability is only one facet of the threat Iran presents, with its considerable and visible presence in Syria in support of the murderous regime of Bashar Assad too close for comfort to Israel’s occupied part of the Golan Heights. And its arming of its Islamist Shiite ally Hezbollah, Israel’s arch-enemy, with an extremely sophisticated arsenal of rockets and missiles, plus its support for radical Palestinian groups, has led to quite a broad consensus within Israel that Iran presents an existential threat. However, this situation requires a measured response that mixes foreign policy tools. Right now, Israel is provoking Iran to retaliate.
This doesn’t mean that Iran lacks vulnerabilities of its own, but its bravado should be tested around the negotiation table before the international community resorts to other means. Iran’s foreign policy is a mixture of a deep sense of victimhood, paranoia and aggression. However, the ultimate corollary is not that diplomatic efforts cannot yield results or that its government is not conducive to reason when presented with a combination of pressures and incentives. In the anomalous situation that has overtaken Israeli politics, Netanyahu is blocking the appointment of a justice minister. This creates an extremely perilous situation, whereby — at a time when conflict with a major foe is fast brewing — there is no functioning security Cabinet.
Instead, a prime minister who is up to his eyeballs in the quagmire of his corruption trial, who has a personal interest in turning an issue of the highest national interest into an emergency, and by that forcing the formation of yet another coalition government led by himself, is virtually the sole decision-maker on the issue, compartmentalizing all the relevant competent bodies and without Knesset supervision.
There is no doubt that Iran should be deterred from developing nuclear military capability. It would further destabilize the region, adding to its subversive conduct in other parts of the Middle East and its sabotage of international navigation routes. However, there is a stark difference between deterring Tehran and humiliating it, and the latter risks pushing it over the edge and handing more power to the more extreme and confrontational elements in its leadership.