Abbas can’t make opposition disappear by canceling elections
Friday’s decision by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas to “postpone” the upcoming elections, which would have been the first in 15 years, will deepen Palestinian division and could signal the collapse of the Fatah movement, at least in its current form. Both Fatah and Hamas have much to gain from the elections. The former relished the opportunity to restore its long-dissipated legitimacy, as it has long ruled over occupied Palestinians, through its dominance of the
PA, with no democratic mandate whatsoever. Hamas, on the other hand, was desperate to break away from its long and painful isolation, as exemplified by the Israeli siege on Gaza, which ironically resulted from its victory in the 2006 vote.
Abbas’ unfortunate but, frankly, expected decision was justified by the 85-year-old leader as one that was compelled by Israel’s refusal to allow Palestinians in Jerusalem to take part in the elections. His explanation, however, was a mere fig leaf aimed at masking his fear of losing power. Since when do occupied people beg their occupiers to practice their democratic rights? Since when have Palestinians sought permission from Israel to assert any form of political sovereignty in occupied East Jerusalem?
The truth is Abbas canceled the elections because all credible public opinion polls showed that this month’s legislative vote would have decimated the ruling clique of his Fatah party and ushered in a whole new political configuration. This would have seen Abbas’ rivals Marwan Barghouti and Nasser Al-Qudwa emerge as the new leaders of Fatah. If this scenario were to occur, a whole class of millionaires who turned the Palestinian struggle into a lucrative industry, generously financed by “donor countries,” was at risk of losing everything in favor of uncharted political territories, controlled by a prisoner, Barghouti, from his Israeli prison cell.
Even worse for Abbas, Barghouti could have become the new president, as he was expected to compete in the July presidential election. That would have been bad for Abbas, but good for Palestinians, as Barghouti’s presidency could have proven crucial for Palestinian national unity and even international solidarity. By effectively canceling the elections,
Abbas, his benefactors and supporters were hoping to delay any moment of reckoning within Fatah — in fact, within the Palestinian body politic as a whole. However, the decision is likely to have far more serious repercussions for Fatah and Palestinian politics than if the elections had taken place.
But none of this will go away simply because Abbas reneged on his commitment to restore a semblance of Palestinian democracy. A whole new political class in Palestine is now defining itself through its allegiances to various lists, parties and leaders. The mass of Fatah supporters who were mentally ready to break away from the dominance of Abbas will not relent simply because the aging leader has changed his mind. In fact, throughout Palestine, an unparalleled discussion on democracy, representation and the need to move on from Abbas and his haphazard, self-serving politics is now taking place and is impossible to contain. By canceling the elections, Abbas has crossed a red line, placing himself and a few others around him as enemies of the Palestinian people, their democratic aspirations and their hope for a better future.