Why Bashar Assad can’t rest easy just yet
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited Damascus last week to brief Syrian President Bashar Assad on the outcome of the Vladimir PutinJoe Biden summit. Borisov also reassured Assad regarding sanctions and aid. Russia is flexing its muscles with the international community to facilitate the acceptance of the Assad regime. It is likely to use its veto power at the UN Security Council next month to close the last remaining aid access point — the crossing from Turkey to the north of Syria — forcing the international community to deal with Damascus. However, this move has its limitations and Assad is still a long way from being widely accepted.
Putin’s argument is that the Assad regime is Syria’s legitimate government and should therefore be in charge of handling all aid distribution. The Bab Al-Hawa crossing delivers aid to 4 million people in Idlib, the last stronghold of the opposition. The US is already showing signs that it is willing to negotiate with Russia on Syria. The incentives it is offering are waivers for some Caesar Act sanctions and a freeze on an American energy company’s operations to the east of the Euphrates in return for Russia allowing the opening of three crossings into Syria, two from Turkey and one from Iraq.
Meanwhile, there are talks aimed at reintegrating the Assad regime into the Arab
League. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will attend a summit in Rome on Monday that was initially supposed to mainly concern Daesh, but an invitation has been extended to the Arab League in order to counter the Russian pressure to normalize relations with Damascus. The main message is that any prospective normalization should not come free, and that Assad should show good behavior in order to be accepted.
There is an increasing trend in the Biden administration to withdraw from the region, which is a continuation of Donald Trump’s policy. In this respect, the US would accept and even welcome a bigger Russian role. Assad, engulfed in arrogance, might think that a Russian-American agreement on Syria would mean that the US has accepted his “victory” and that the West has capitulated, but this is far from the truth.
Despite their current differences, both Russia and the US want to stabilize Syria, although for different reasons. Russia wants a stable Syria from which it can project power in the region. One of Putin’s main selling points to his electorate is that he is renewing Russia’s prime position in international politics, which was lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Russians are also aware of Assad’s treacherous nature. They know he is not the person who will bring stability to Syria, but in the absence of an American acceptance of their new role in the region,
Assad is the best bargaining chip they have to negotiate with the West.
However, Assad is a hard sell. It is unlikely that Israel will accept him. A former US official who liaises with Israel on Syria told me that Assad had “cried wolf too many times” and that the Israelis did not believe he was willing or capable of reining in Iran in Syria. Biden also cannot accept Assad, particularly because he has put human rights at the forefront of his foreign policy. Members of Congress have also been appalled by the new administration’s failure to enforce the Caesar Act.
Though the US is minded to de-escalate and reduce its footprint with the least damage possible, attempts to appease Iran and Russia should not be taken for granted by Assad. Unlike Trump, who had a general policy of maximum pressure on Iran and its allies, Biden’s position on the different issues is not clear. This is probably intentional in order to prevent him from becoming captive to his position and to leave room to maneuver and negotiate with the different players.
The Biden administration’s main objective in the region is to go back to the Iran nuclear deal. All Middle Eastern issues are viewed from this perspective. The Americans are not likely to initiate any confrontation before the signing of a deal with Tehran. The real question is what will be the US positions on the different issues once Iran goes back to the nuclear agreement?
While Assad might be rejoicing at the waiving of some sanctions, he does not realize that he is living on borrowed time.
His deadliest threat would be an AmericanRussian rapprochement. The July 10 vote on the Bab Al-Hawa crossing will show whether Russia and the US have come to an agreement. Moscow’s vote will set the pace of the Russian-American cooperation on Syria. Even if Russia decides to vote against the opening of the crossing, it is unlikely that the international community will channel all aid through Damascus and allow Assad to put the entire country at his mercy. Can Assad be trusted with aid going to Idlib? Probably not. But the aid can always be channeled through nongovernmental organizations, negating the need for formal crossings.
Assad has been playing on the Iranians and the Russians. Now he can benefit from the Biden administration’s desire to appease both. The US is keen to clinch a deal with Iran before Ebrahim Raisi takes office as president and it does not want any disturbance that might disrupt the negotiations. However, this does not mean that Assad has won or that the international community has accepted him as a winner. Though Assad might be happy to hear reassurances from Borisov, he should look at the big picture, which may not be so rosy when it comes to the continuity of his rule over Syria.
While the
Syrian president
might be rejoicing at the waiving
of some sanctions, he does not realize that he is living on borrowed time
Under the gradual control
of the Axis of Resistance, the country was
turned into another Gaza