Watch what Raisi does, not what he says
In his first press conference following his victory in this month’s Iranian presidential election, Ebrahim Raisi, who is set to become the country’s eighth president since the 1979 revolution, said: “Continuing Imam Khomeini’s approach and following the path of the martyrs, especially Qassem Soleimani, was among the messages of these elections.”
Whoever reads the above statement will conclude that a “revolutionary” government will be formed and thus there will be more hard-line stances on internal and regional issues. This means that the allies and arms of the Islamic Republic in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria will continue to spread chaos against any country that disagrees with Iran.
Nevertheless, some observers believe that the president-elect, despite his differences from the outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, will not be able to deviate much from the foreign policy the latter has pursued over the past eight years, specifically in terms of the nuclear deal negotiations with the P5+1 countries. Tehran wants to reach a quick agreement, through which it can ease the domestic economic situation, which has been damaged by international sanctions.
Whoever follows Raisi’s statements finds that he focuses on the economic file because the citizens of Iran hate the political differences between the parties, and they relied a lot on the government of Rouhani investing in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal to improve the level of income, create new jobs, and lift restrictions on the banking system. However, this did not happen, which led to demonstrations and protests, many of which were not political or organized by opposition currents. Rather, they called for economic reform and support for the poor.
Therefore, Raisi says “our priorities are to improve the living conditions of the Iranian people and to build a sound administrative system away from corruption,” which means that the economy will be the main pressure factor on his government. Raisi knows that the deteriorating economic situation has many causes, but one of the most important factors is the expansionist foreign policy pursued by Iran. If he wants to improve the standard of living of the Iranians and attract foreign investment, he must change the expansionist policy, put an end to the activities of the Quds Force, and put the military at the service of politics, not the other way around.
The president-elect will seek to complete the nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 countries because he understands his country’s need to obtain access to frozen funds and be freed from US sanctions. He will also seek to improve relations with the Gulf countries, specifically Saudi Arabia. In this regard, Raisi said: “Our priority will be our relations with neighboring countries. As for Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic has no objection to reopening embassies in the two countries, and this policy has been previously announced. I stress once again that there is no obstacle for the Islamic Republic toward relations and dialogue with Saudi Arabia and all the countries of the region.”
This promise will be monitored by regional governments. If he is found to be serious, he will find a response from Saudi Arabia, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in April that the Kingdom wants Iran to prosper and he views it as a neighboring country. Therefore, Raisi should take advantage of this positive atmosphere, especially since he is supported by Khamenei and he can make progress in regional relations without facing fierce objection from the fundamentalist forces in Iran.
Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in
Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran.
Twitter: @Halmustafa