US-Israel ties to stay strong

In a matter of just a few months, the political landscapes in both the US and Israel have changed dramatically. This new reality is intriguing for both domestic and international reasons and is expected to leave its mark on US-Israel relations.

With President Joe Biden in the White House and a new, if somewhat fragile, government led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett installed in Israel, these special relations are not expected to change dramatically, but they will be tested on significant issues that the two don’t see eye to eye on — Iran and the Palestinians in particular.

In the immediate future, a serious test of relations between the two governments is inevitable and will revolve around whether Washington decides to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran and, if it does, under what conditions. Bennett’s predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu presented probably the most ardent and uncompromising opposition to the 2015 nuclear agreement signed by the P5+1.

There is a major discrepancy between the new administrations in Washington and Tel Aviv in terms of experience on the world stage. There is now little experience of high-level diplomatic negotiations among Israel’s top decision-makers, while there is plenty of it in the Biden administration. Moreover, both governments are suffering from compulsive heckling from their predecessors.

Despite Tehran dragging its feet on negotiations over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, and the election of the hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi in place of the pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, this potential area of friction between the US and Israel may yet be avoided.

A return to the JCPOA in one way or another will face strong criticism from Israel, but the Bennett-Yair Lapid government is unlikely to push it to the extent, Netanyahu-style, that it would harm long-term US-Israeli relations. On the Palestinian issues, however, Israel is on shakier ground. Washington is far from ready to embark on a peace initiative. Neither the Palestinian political system, which is in a state of flux, nor the Israeli government, with its razor-thin majority in the Knesset, could survive such a complex process. However, the growing pressure within American society, especially from the strengthening progressive camp of the Democratic Party, may well have an impact. It can be expected that the Biden administration will be more insistent on improving the living conditions of Palestinians and on preventing Israel from taking unilateral steps to make a two-state solution null and void by expanding its settlements and legalizing outposts in the West Bank.

For the sake of their own countries and the world, it is a great relief to see more nuanced, considered and less confrontational leaderships in the US and Israel, replacing administrations that were led by two super-inflated egos. There will be issues on which the two governments will disagree and even clash, but this closest of informal alliances is most likely to remain intact, serving as it does the vital interests of each, both at home and abroad.

Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the

MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.