Libya back in a quagmire
In the weeks after the appointment of the interim Government of National Unity (GNU) in Libya a few months ago, a rash of developments, endorsements, and newfound optimism suggested a nation finally on the move after years of conflict and division.
Painstaking efforts at conflict resolution by the UN and others culminated in the formation of a shadow parliament in the form of the relatively inclusive 75-member Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), and the appointment of a temporary government headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, with the aim of holding legislative and presidential elections by Dec. 24. Unfortunately, despite even rival interests being able to reach a consensus about the importance of holding these elections, the LPDF appears to have succumbed to familiar divisions.
It has split into three factions.
One group remains committed to the existing roadmap, which the US Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) insists on. The second group has called for both elections to be postponed at least until next year, while the third proposes holding only the parliamentary elections this year.
There are foreign and domestic interests wary of the elections delivering a crippling blow to strategic years-long efforts to embed foreign interests in Libya’s post-conflict landscape. Several external actors have deployed men, money, and munitions into Libya to influence its first democratically elected government and secure outsize benefits from the lucrative post-war reconstruction.
The lack of a military solution to Libya’s crisis does not impede these objectives. Ironically, a peaceful political process under UN auspices, such as the LPDF and the GNU, actually affords these actors opportunities to influence Libya’s transition. Manipulating constitutional foundations of future elections would be less costly and better serve their limited self-interests, which remain hostile to a fully functioning democracy taking root in Libya, and the re-establishment of its sovereignty. The LPDF’s failure to reach an agreement is therefore unsurprising, given a similar lack of progress on the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries from
Libyan soil.
A political process in disarray will not just be a major headache for Libyans, frustrated by the pandemic, frequent blackouts, food, and currency shortages. It also sheds light on vulnerabilities engineered into the LPDF by an UN-led process in which the selection of its 75 members prized the inclusion of controversial figures who are now acting as spoilers in service of non-Libyan interests.
Should the LPDF fail to do its job, not only will it further undermine its legitimacy and that of the road map it produced, it will imperil any future constructive dialogue, delaying much-needed progress in Libya’s transition. If Aug. 1 passes without an agreement, it will also impugn the credibility of the UN mission and highlight weaknesses in the international community’s resolve to facilitate Libya’s peace and stability. By then, it will be too late to replace the entire LPDF, let alone induce the notoriously uncooperative parliament and High Council of State to agree on a binding legal document on the elections — leaving a national referendum as the only recourse.