Wanted: Plan B to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions
When it comes to addressing the threat of the Iranian regime’s nuclear program, the Biden administration and the EU appear to be investing all their political capital in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the Iran nuclear deal.
In spite of the regime’s latest nuclear defiance, such as increasing its production of uranium metal, which has no civilian purpose, and Iran’s regional and global aggression, including its attacks on international shipping and an attempt to kidnap a US citizen on American soil, the EU and US are still focused on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.
Instead of taking appropriate action against the regime after it made a man accused of mass murder, Ebrahim Raisi, its president, the EU this month stated that it is optimistic the nuclear deal will be revived. A senior EU official said: “We still think that the most likely scenario is an agreement. What I cannot tell you is when and (under) what conditions… They (the Iranian leaders) will come back the moment they have completed all the different steps in the new administration. So my understanding is (that) we are talking about sometime at the beginning of September.”
However, it is a major mistake that the EU and the Biden administration seem to see no path to addressing the danger of Iran’s nuclear program other than returning to the 2015 nuclear deal.
First of all, from the Iranian authorities’ perspective, the total reliance of the European and US leaders on the revival of the nuclear deal shows their desperation and weakness. This is encouraging the Islamic Republic to take advantage of the situation by advancing its nuclear program, violating international law and issuing threats, all while the Western powers have yet to announce any options other than the 2015 nuclear deal for preventing the regime from becoming a nuclear state like
North Korea.
Secondly, if the EU and US put all their faith in the nuclear talks and returning to the JCPOA, they could fail to see that the Iranian regime actually may not be interested in rejoining the deal and it could become a nuclear state even before the negotiations are concluded. The regime has already reached a dangerous level in its nuclear advancement, according to the International Atomic
Energy Agency.
As a result, it is important that the US and the EU examine other alternatives as soon as possible, particularly if the nuclear talks do not yield positive results in the next few months. But what should this plan B include?
It should be multidimensional. One important part of plan B must be sustained sanctions and pressure, which ought to be unilateral as well as multilateral. In case the Iranian regime refuses to rejoin the nuclear deal and continues to advance its nuclear program, the US and the EU can unilaterally increase their sanctions on Iran’s energy industry, specifically oil, as well as the financial, shipping, construction and arms sectors. Unfortunately, the EU has been taking a softer economic policy toward the Iranian regime, while the Biden administration announced in June that not only was it willing to lift nuclear-related sanctions, but also that it was considering lifting non-nuclear-related sanctions.
Plan B should also include reimposing the UN sanctions that were lifted in 2015 due to the JCPOA. These are the four rounds of UN sanctions that were in place before the nuclear deal came into effect. According to this agreement, any signatory party can trigger a 30-day countdown to a “snapback” that would restore all UN sanctions on Iran, including an arms embargo, if Tehran is found to be failing to meet its obligations. Other members cannot veto such a move. In other words, the US, Germany, France or the UK could trigger the snapback provision of the nuclear deal. Once this has been done, the UN Security Council will have 30 days to restore sanctions against the Iranian regime.
Military options against the Iranian regime’s nuclear sites must also be on the table as part of plan B. The Iranian regime must not become a nuclear state. Targeting its nuclear sites would slow down the regime’s nuclear advancement, even if it would not completely halt it.
Finally, it is important that the US and EU make the Iranian leaders aware of their plan B and make it clear that they will enforce their plan if Tehran refuses to rejoin the nuclear deal.