The megatrends shaping our world
Former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was once asked by a young journalist to reflect on the greatest challenge facing a statesman. His response: “Events, dear boy, events.”
Of course, what he meant was that even the most meticulous planning can be upended by events that require immediate attention. Long-term strategic goals must often wait until the fires are put out.
US and Western policymakers are currently trying to put out a tragic fire in Afghanistan that is occupying virtually all of their foreign policy bandwidth. Other nations are also engaged broadly in this effort.
Megatrends, however, do not have a timeline. They quietly and powerfully shape our world and our future — and often serve as the driving forces of the fires that we see today in the world. That is why it is vital to explore these megatrends to see where we are headed.
Let us start with urbanization, a megatrend shaping politics, societies, business, technology and much else besides. It is a megatrend with two centuries of history. In 1800, only 3 percent of the world’s population lived in cities, with the figure rising to 15 percent by 1900. Today, 55 percent of people live in urban spaces, a proportion that is likely to reach 66 percent by 2050, according to the UN.
What about demographics? According to the UN, Africa’s population could double by 2050, rising from 1.2 billion to nearly
2.5 billion. We will see more than a billion urban Africans by then. Sub-Saharan Africa is also young. The median age is 19. By contrast, the median age in Europe is 41.
There are tremendous challenges inherent in this population growth — as well as tremendous opportunities. Every government and business with long-term ambitions should be developing an
Africa strategy.
A third megatrend is connectivity. A British historian, shortly after the Cold War ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, once famously said: “All of the ‘isms’ are now ‘wasms’.” While not quite accurate (note the lingering appeal of socialism, even in Western market economies), we can safely say that there is a powerful “ism” that has grown worldwide. Let us call it “connectism.” It is a view that has swept the world, though it does not come with a Karl Marx-like intellectual forefather. Its forefathers are global tech companies that prefer to hook you on their products, not announce their intentions in manifestos.
The pandemic has blown a heavy gust of wind into the sails of this megatrend. Consider how much more critical connectivity has become to how we work, consume and connect.
Now, with tech evangelists promoting the “metaverse” — a world of 3D augmented reality creating new forms of connectivity and spawning online lives and identities — there will be dramatic consequences for our future.
These and other megatrends, ranging from climate change to shifting economic centers of gravity, will shape our future in ways that the headlines may not always reflect. These are the tectonic shifts quietly changing our future.