Afghan debacle spells poll disaster
Afghanistan’s chaotic collapse and rapid takeover by the Taliban as US forces withdrew from Kabul has shocked an American public that clings to the belief America “defeated the terrorists.”
With the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks approaching, people will direct their anger at President Joe Biden and the Democratic leadership. That anger is coming at a bad time for Democrats, as they seek to retain control of Congress in elections scheduled for November 2022. History shows that, in almost every midterm congressional election season, the party in power loses control of the Congress.
President George W. Bush managed to hold on to the House during the 2002 midterms only because the nation was at war with Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and voters rose above partisan politics. But the US today is far more polarized than it was then or indeed has been at any time in its history, other than during the Civil War in the 1860s.
In the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, the combination of the rise of the Taliban, the welcoming of Osama bin Laden’s former security chief Amin Al-Haq by Taliban leaders, and heightened concerns about terrorism could lead to one of the greatest reversals in US history.
Public shock could turn into anger at the polling place. The odds of Biden retaining control of Congress are low, but the Afghanistan fiasco is likely to make the election “flip” worse than expected.
Campaigning for the election traditionally begins after the
Labor Day weekend next week.
Candidates seeking to unseat incumbents will ramp up the rhetoric and one of the most powerful messages will be how the Democrats allowed the Taliban to return to power in Afghanistan.
Additionally, Biden’s image is one of weakness. He has controlled his message by managing a friendly news media, but that cannot last. Reports that he has been given a list of reporters to call on at press conferences smacks of media management rather than public openness.
US voters are also struggling after almost two years of coronavirus restrictions, cutbacks and economic turmoil. Although jobs and economic growth seem to be returning, the resurgence of the virus has many concerned.
However, Biden’s potential loss of Congress next year is unlikely to signal a return for former President Donald Trump, whose image has been tarnished by both a hostile mainstream news media and his expulsion from powerful social media platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter. Americans will not be hearing his voice as clearly as he needs.
The Democrats have only an eight-seat lead over the Republicans in the House of Representatives, while the two parties each have 50 seats in the Senate, where Vice President Kamala Harris holds the deciding vote.
Biden’s party’s control of Congress is fragile and, as history shows, can easily be lost — and even more so now because of the Afghanistan debacle.