Libya’s deepening deadlock is fueling a dangerous rivalry
Libya is struggling to escape the turmoil that it fell into years ago. The country has faced tragedy because of a NATO assault based on the claim that the organization had a responsibility to protect the Libyan people from their leader Muammar Qaddafi’s repression. The “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine, also referred to as “R2P,” was developed in 2001 by the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty as a response to the atrocities committed in Rwanda in 1994, Dutch peacekeeping forces allowing more than 8,000 Muslim civilians to be murdered by the Serbian army in 1992-95, and atrocities committed by Serbs in Kosovo in 1998-99.
Initially the measure was designed for four specific crimes: Genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity. None of these had been committed in Libya. The alleged reason for NATO’s intervention was to prevent Qaddafi’s forces from persecuting their own people, but the real motive was several countries’ interest in grabbing a share of Libya’s abundant oil wealth. Another cause was the hatred that Qaddafi had created in the international arena with his unruly attitude.
The BBC has estimated that over 30,000 Libyans were killed during NATO operations, while Qaddafi’s forces killed only around 100 people. The suffering that the Libyan people endured, as well as the damage caused to the civilian and military infrastructure of the country, are beyond description.
A UN Support Mission was created in Libya in the aftermath of the civil war to help Libyan transitional authorities in post-conflict efforts, and a US diplomat, Stephanie Turco Williams, was appointed to draw up a roadmap for the constitutional process in the country.
As a result of the process, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh was elected head of a caretaker government on Feb. 15 last year with 39 votes, five more than his political rivals Aguila Saleh and Fathi Bashagha.
Williams had incorporated safeguards to ensure the smooth conduct of the elections. Members of the caretaker government had to resign their posts three month before the Dec. 24 poll if they were to stand as candidates, a rule designed to prevent the caretaker government from manipulating the elections.
Dbeibeh violated this requirement by remaining in his post. As a result, the Tobruk government declared the caretaker government invalid, saying that Dbeibeh’s mandate came to an end on the date of Dec. 24 elections. The elections could not be held because of several shortcomings. However, Dbeibeh considers himself prime minister in the belief that his term was due to end only when elections are held.
The Tobruk-based House of Representatives on Feb. 10 organized an election and chose former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha as new prime minister. Most of the members of the Tripoli-based General National Congress did not participate in this election.
The House of Representatives claims that Dbeibeh bribed some of the members of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum. Irrespective of these claims, using money as a tool is, unfortunately, a widespread practice, but here the key factor was the US support for the House of Representatives, rather than the bribe. Washington is unhappy with the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government operations in Tripoli. A modified version of buying votes exists in the US. Individuals are allowed to donate to presidential campaigns, but this process is legalized and regulated.
Rivalry between the two contenders is escalating. Dbeibeh’s convoy was attacked in Tripoli on Feb. 10 this year when the Tobruk parliament was about to convene a meeting to elect a new prime minister. Dbeibeh will probably not give up the political fight in these uncertain circumstances. He has expressed his strong support for parliamentary elections, a referendum on the constitution and presidential elections.
Both Dbeibeh and Bashagha say that fair elections are the only way to lead the country out of the crisis, but each wants the polls to be held by the government they would be leading.
In the complicated Libyan imbroglio, where so many foreign actors have huge stakes, it is not easy to predict which contender has the better chance, but Dbeibeh holds most of Libya’s assets and controls them more or less effectively.
Williams, meanwhile, is working laboriously in Cairo to come up with a solution that is acceptable to all sides. Any breakthrough in the immediate future is unlikely without the support of a strong mediator.