Can the international community still do big things?
When US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau opened the Bretton Woods Conference almost 80 years ago, he reminded delegates that failures of international cooperation had led to the Great Depression, social division and, ultimately, war. “Prosperity, like peace, is indivisible,” he concluded. “We cannot afford to have it scattered here or there among the fortunate ... Poverty, wherever it exists, is menacing to us all.”
That message speaks across the ages. We are once again facing global challenges that can be met only through international cooperation. Large swathes of the developing world are being excluded from global prosperity. Extreme poverty is rising. Hard-won gains in health, education and nutrition are under threat. Already obscene economic inequalities between and within countries are widening. The window of opportunity for averting a climate catastrophe is about to slam shut.
And yet multilateral cooperation is paralyzed by complacency, petty rivalries and inwardlooking nationalism.
Consider this year’s International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, which offered an opportunity to mobilize the finance needed to prevent wholesale reversals of progress toward the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Instead, Western governments and the G20 arrived with no shared agenda, spent a week swapping platitudes, and left the world with a set of vague and incoherent declarations.
We cannot afford leadership failures on this scale. The IMF and the World Bank, the twin pillars of the Bretton Woods system, should be at the heart of international cooperation in responding to the defining challenges facing our generation, starting with the two-tier recovery from the economic downturn triggered by COVID-19.
Unlike advanced economies, which have recovered on the back of vast government financing and vaccination programs, many developing economies have suffered deep scarring. Growth has slowed, tax revenues have fallen and two-thirds of low-income countries are either in, or at risk of, debt distress. The IMF estimates that the poorest countries will need an additional $450 billion to return to their pre-pandemic development trajectories.
Budget pressures are limiting the capacity of governments to defend human development gains. The pandemic pushed almost 100 million people into extreme poverty. That figure is set to rise as safety nets are cut and Russia’s war in Ukraine fuels food price inflation, raising the specter of increased malnutrition, or even famine, in some parts of the world.
More than 40 of the poorest countries are spending more on servicing their debts than on public health. Education budgets are being cut even as millions of the world’s most disadvantaged children return to classrooms carrying the learning losses inflicted during pandemic-related school closures.
Against this grim backdrop, international cooperation to finance a “Sustainable Development Goal recovery” has gained new urgency. The Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development estimates that the already large pre-pandemic SDG financing gap has increased by $1.2 trillion. That is without the incremental investments of $2 trillion needed annually to support renewable energy investments in developing countries to achieve the goals of the 2015
Paris climate agreement.
When governments committed to the
SDG agenda seven years ago, they pledged a bold new approach to development finance that would convert “billions into trillions.” The architects of the Bretton Woods system created the vehicle to do so in the form of multilateral development banks or MDBs.
Designed to support European reconstruction after the Second World War, the MDB system — the World Bank and its regional counterparts — enshrines a simple but powerful financial model. With small amounts of paid-in capital underpinned by much larger government guarantees (“callable capital”), the MDBs can use their AAA credit ratings to issue bonds at low interest rates and lend to developing countries, effectively mobilizing private finance for public investment. The World Bank, the largest multilateral development bank, has only $19 billion of paid-in capital but $278 billion of callable capital.
Multilateral finance has multiplier effects that bilateral aid cannot duplicate. Every $1 invested in the World Bank through paid-in capital mobilizes $4 in new finance. Yet the MDB system is, at best, weakly exploited. Apart from its soft loan facility, called the International Development Association, the World Bank system has played a muted role in supporting developing countries during the pandemic, and the multilateral development banks’ financing portfolio for climate interventions in low- and middle-income countries is just $38 billion, which is a fraction of what is needed.
While the MDBs, most notably the African Development Bank, are undercapitalized, the bigger problem is a deeply entrenched conservatism in financial governance. Major shareholders — the US and European governments — refuse to allow callable-capital guarantees to be integrated into lending operations.
Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute estimate that changing this rule could mobilize an additional $1.3 trillion, with only a marginal change in credit ratings and borrowing costs.
Speaking at the spring meetings, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen lamented the multilateral development banks’ failure to mobilize the trillions needed for pandemic recovery. And yet the Joe Biden administration has failed to overhaul the rules on callable capital.
As the crisis triggered by COVID-19 has deepened, some commentators have called for a new Bretton Woods system. They have a point. The World Bank and the IMF maintain anachronistic, Western-dominated governance systems.
But what is missing from the response to today’s defining human development challenges is not financial architecture but rather the sense of urgency, shared purpose and common endeavor that defined the original Bretton Woods conference.
The pandemic pushed almost 100 million people into extreme
poverty
The root causes
are, first and foremost, the occupation and the worsening political and
economic conditions Palestinians are
living under