COP requires comprehensive reform ahead of UAE meet

In typical COP fashion, world governments seized a last-minute agreement on Sunday in summit overtime, including a breakthrough on the loss and damage agenda. However, welcome as the new deal is, this was a summit that took one step forward and two steps backward on the overall goal to raise climate action ambition, with the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit agreed in Paris in 2015 now in increasing peril.

With the need for much greater results, COP27 has therefore increased calls for fundamental reform of the UN-led climate framework process, which may no longer be fit for purpose.

Disappointing as the overall results of the Egypt event were, the loss and damage outcome was a significant success.

The Global South has generally welcomed the move to help developing countries with the damaging impact of rising global temperatures, including extreme flooding, storms, drought and rising sea levels, as they have contributed little to the pollution that caused it.

However, the wider, overarching deal agreed on Sunday after tense, overrunning negotiations offered little progress on cutting the greenhouse gases that actually drive loss and damage.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Sunday: “Let’s be clear. Our planet is still in the emergency room. We need to drastically reduce emissions now, and this is a problem that this COP did not address … the world still needs a quantum leap in climate ambition.” The thrust of Guterres’ remarks is entirely right and a key question now is how best to start advancing the agenda for COP28 in the UAE next year.

There are several answers to the question, including that negotiations should be started now, with all countries prepared to get a clear agreement in 12 months’ time.

This must include pushing key countries to increase their ambition and submit improved pledges so there is a chance of sticking to the 1.5 C limit by focusing on phasing out fossil fuels.

With the world currently on course for disastrous warming of more than 3 C, this pathway can still be changed through proactive, concerted global action.

This includes the world’s very best diplomats taking greater charge and governments throwing their full weight behind delivering stronger outcomes.

Even if profound change were to happen, however, at least one other geopolitical requirement is needed. That is for the US and China, as the two most influential players in world politics today, to double down on their climate cooperation, which was thankfully restated earlier this month at the G20 Summit in Indonesia following the bilateral meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

With the US and China now all-powerful on the climate agenda, their cooperation is essential if the pace of climate action ambition and delivery is to be realized. This is not inconceivable, given that tackling global warming is a key political priority for both Biden and Xi. However, now is the time for all key countries, not just the US and China, to step up to the plate and urgently get around the negotiating table with hosts the UAE so that momentum can build well ahead of COP28. Moreover, the UN and other key actors need to assess the medium-term viability of the

COP process and examine how a leaner, more focused forum might address the massive challenges of global climate action in the coming years.