Erdogan calls on voters to turn out; rival sees ‘last exit’

Expert explains likely outcomes

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to build on his momentum going into Sunday’s runoff presidential election, urging Turks to vote as the man aiming to defeat him called on electors to pull their country from “the dark pit” of his two-decade rule.

A first round of voting on May 14 showed Erdogan with a lead over the opposition’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and Erdogan’s AK Party and its allies secured a parliamentary majority in the initial vote.

Addressing flag-waving supporters in Istanbul’s Beykoz district during his final campaign rally, Erdogan urged a strong turnout.

“Are we running to the polls tomorrow? Will we cast our votes from the early hours in the morning? We will not miss anyone that voted in the first round,” he said, as the crowd chanted “yes” in excitement. Kilicdaroglu, who is backed by a six-party opposition alliance, said everyone who loves Turkey must vote. “If you really want it, we’ll all get out of this dark pit together,” he wrote in a Tweet. “I am calling to all our people regardless of their view or lifestyle. This is the last exit. Everyone who loves their country should go to the ballot box!”

Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at Washington Institute, tipped three likely outcomes of Sunday’s runoff. “As the least plausible outcome, we can see a fragile Erdogan if he wins by a very narrow margin of around 1 percent. The result will be contested by the opposition. In that case, he would emerge with vulnerability. Cagaptay believes that a fragile Erdogan will result in a more authoritarian rule and more crackdowns domestically, while the country will lean more on Russia and Gulf countries for much-needed inflows. For Cagaptay, the second outcome could be an “emboldened Erdogan” if he won by a landslide, especially by taking more than 55 percent of the votes.

“In this scenario, he will have more space to validate his policies, including those about foreign policy. He will also use his parliamentary majority to pass controversial legislation demanded by his farright allies,” he said.

The most plausible outcome, ac

cording to Cagaptay, is Erdogan winning comfortably, but not by a landslide. “In that case, business will continue to be as usual. Erdogan won’t feel the need to change his economic and domestic policies, and he will continue pursuing a transactionalist foreign policy. ” If the opposition challenger Kilicdaroglu wins, it is likely to be a narrow victory, and the lack of a parliamentary majority will pose problems in the short term, Cagaptay said. “Although the parliament has turned largely into a rubber stamp under Erdogan’s new system, with little de facto power, it will still create some complications for a Kilicdaroglu win.