The demise of Scottish nationalism is a boost for the UK’S future
At a time of growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, Scotland and the UK are likely better off together than apart.
IN THE last decade, the union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland has appeared at risk of rupturing – primarily due to the resurgence of the Scottish National Party (SNP). However, Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf’s unexpected resignation on Monday (Apr 29) suggests that the almost-two-decade era of SNP control is ebbing fast.
The SNP’S declining fortunes are significant not just because the party has controlled Edinburgh’s Holyrood Parliament since 2007. The nationalists fuelled the debate over Scottish independence, and came within a whisker of winning a referendum on the issue in 2014.
All of this matters to the wider world because Scottish independence would damage the UK and its standing on the world stage.
For instance, losing the Scottish tax base – especially at a time of huge fiscal challenges post-pandemic – would make it harder for the UK to meet its new plan of spending 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The UK’S large overseas aid budget and extensive network of diplomatic and trade missions would also be hit. This would undermine both the country’s hard and soft power.
Scottish independence would erode the UK’S voice in international forums: from the United Nations (UN), to economic groupings such as the G7, G8 and G20, to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Perhaps most prominently, it could be seized upon by non-permanent members of the UN Security Council or others to catalyse a review of the UK’S membership in the group. To be sure, reform of the Security Council is overdue. However, Scottish independence could see this issue being decided upon less favourable terms for the UK.
Troubled legacy
While the eventual resurgence of the Scottish independence movement cannot be ruled out, this current era of SNP rule is on its last legs. Yousaf’s resignation, after terminating a de facto governing coalition with the Greens, will probably hasten the transition to a new administration in Holyrood, with an election to be held as soon as 2024, and no later than 2026.
Yousaf’s year in office had multiple missteps, and is the second shortest first ministership in Scottish history. But he inherited a troubled legacy from predecessor Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s longest-serving first minister. Since the failed referendum in 2014, she was the dominant Scottish politician until her resignation last year.
While Sturgeon proved a formidable politician, she was unable to solve the conundrum of how to stage and win a second independence referendum within a generation. So she spent much of the last years of her time in power on the back foot.
This was also partly because she championed a number of controversial policies. These included a Bill that would have allowed people as young as 16 in Scotland to quickly change their legal gender; it was vetoed by the UK government on the grounds that it would undermine Uk-wide equality law. By the time Yousaf took over, some polls showed that backing for the SNP had slumped to its lowest level in five years.
However, it was the independence issue on which the SNP failed to grasp the nettle. This was not helped by the UK Supreme Court ruling that Holyrood does not have the authority to declare a new independence referendum without consent from the UK government.
Since 2014, Sturgeon and Yousaf have sought new ways to push the debate in their favoured direction, but a decade later, there is relatively little to show.
This is despite their attempt to capitalise on the political unpopularity of Brexit in Scotland, where 62 per cent of the population voted to stay in the European Union (EU) during the 2016 referendum.
The SNP argues that the “material change” of Brexit, since the 2014 independence referendum, means the Scottish people should be given another chance to vote.
Sturgeon has two possible tactics. She could use a good SNP result at the next UK general election – to be held by January 2025 – to pressure the UK government into another referendum. Or she could try to turn the next Scottish election into a de facto vote on independence.
However, given the declining popularity of the SNP, neither approach is promising. This means the party lacks a road map to deliver Scottish independence – which would mean the unravelling of the UK, one of the world’s longest and most successful political unions.
To be sure, Scotland has legitimate concerns about the Brexit deal agreed with the EU in 2020.
However, the failure of the SNP project is welcome. Scottish independence would lead both Scotland and the UK down a potential political and economic black hole, weakening all parties.
A bad idea
For Scotland, there are huge uncertainties around whether it would benefit significantly from independence. This is not least given its deficit between tax revenues and public spending – which it can better stomach as part of the union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Moreover, the EU has confirmed that an independent Scotland would not have an automatic right to join the Brussels-based club. Joining the EU may require protracted negotiation, not least given that members are required to run a deficit below 3 per cent of GDP.
Furthemore, the terms on which Edinburgh might accede to the EU could be significantly less favourable than those that the UK negotiated. For instance, the EU would likely insist upon Scotland joining the eurozone – regardless of the country’s attachment to the pound – as has been the case for all recent accession states.
There is also the possibility of a “harder border” between England and Scotland if the latter joined the EU post-independence. This is because Scotland would need to embrace European-style freedom of movement, and a different immigration policy from the rest of the post-brexit UK.
All this underscores that Scottish independence is a bad idea which would weaken the domestic underpinnings of the UK’S international influence. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the future of Scotland and the UK is better together.