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lationship between “internal circulation” and “external circulation” is one of interaction rather than competition. China’s tech industry, for instance, will still require foreign semiconductors to produce even as it seeks to grow its own domestic chip industry. The success of China’s increasing domestic self-reliance is therefore in some ways dependent on its continued engagement with global markets.

China’s new look

14FYP is also looking to change the landscape of China as well. Under its “New Urbanisation” initiative, Beijing is looking to raise its urbanisation ratio

to 65% by 2025. China’s current urbanisation ratio of 61% is considered to be relatively low, compared to Japan’s ratio of 77% in the early 1990s when the demographic tide began to turn.

“China’s next phase of urbanisation [will] be a key pillar to mitigate structural challenges of an ageing population and deglobalisation over the next decade,” says Morgan Stanley economist Robin Xing and team. The aim is to make cities faster, safer, greener and more livable so that more people can live there, unlocking untapped labour productivity and consumer demand.

The hukou residency system is expected to be reformed to develop a uniform national market, breaking down

barriers between provinces and easing the movement of people to improve talent and consumption pools. But with the target for urban population increase being a relatively conservative 4%, any economic impact is likely to be incremental for now.

Yet EIU warns that the downside of such a policy is greater inequality between regions. Most of the benefits from this policy will likely be felt in urban rather than rural areas as more rural residents move to the cities. The Greater Bay Area encompassing Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, and metropolitan areas in central China are seen to benefit most.

Sustainability is another pillar of

14FYP. Four of the plan’s 20 indicators on economic and social developments are related to energy and climate change including half of the “binding targets”. Beijing aims to cut energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 13.5% and 18% respectively and build new sustainable energy infrastructure nationwide.

Critics lament that some of the targets and China’s proposed carbon emission cap are either too vague or too conservative. But Dr Yang Fuqiang, a researcher at the Institute of Clean Energy at Peking University, tells Carbon Brief this reflects the Beijing’s desire not to “overpromise” for its targets, which China has a good track record

of surpassing.

Chinese officials maintain that further details are forthcoming in regional and sector-specific plans and further Ministry of Ecology and Environment targets.

Amid global uncertainty, premier Li struck a confident note of the future. “In 2021, China will continue to face many development risks and challenges, but the economic fundamentals that will sustain long-term growth remain unchanged. We should stay confident, meet challenges head-on, and consolidate the foundation for economic recovery to ensure sustained and healthy economic and social development,” he told the NPC.