A turbulent future awaits the traveller

AVIOPHOBICS, people who fear flying, now have something else to worry about: new research from the UK’s University of Reading shows climate change will not only produce more air turbulence, it will also be more violent.

This could raise the pressure on the aviation industry, which could feel the effects of rising fuel prices more sharply as aircraft redirect their flight paths to avoid inclement weather.

The International Air Transport Association says the industry will generate a profit margin of only 1.6% worldwide this year.

University of Reading researcher Paul Willams, and Manoj Joshi of the University of East Anglia analysed supercomputer simulations of the atmospheric jet stream over the North Atlantic to examine the future of aviation.

The study — published in Nature Climate Change yesterday — “found that, in the middle of this century, the chances of encountering significant turbulence will increase by 40%-170%, with the most likely outcome being a doubling of the airspace containing significant turbulence at any time,” the university said.

The average strength of turbulence would likely rise 10%40%. “This suggests we’ll see the ‘fasten seatbelts’ sign turned on more often in the decades to come,” Dr Williams said.

“Rerouting flights to avoid stronger patches of turbulence could increase fuel consumption and emissions of atmospheric pollutants, make delays at airports more common, and ultimately push up ticket prices.”

He estimated delays and damage repairs due to the turbulence would cost about $150m a year.

Gavin Durr, a commercial pilot and vice-president of SA’s Airline Pilots Association, said yesterday it was difficult to measure how climate changes affected flying, but “global warming will have an effect”. He noted that changing weather systems would mainly affect take-off and landing. With Linda Ensor