Renamo leader’s war talk imperils Mozambique’s growth
Opposition party boss admits to recent attacks and demands talks with the ruling Frelimo party, writes Gwinyayi Dzinesa
AFONSO Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel group turned main opposition party, the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), admitted this week ordering a recent attack on a police station in Muxunge that killed four officers.
He said on Wednesday that this was in response to a raid on Renamo offices by Mozambican security forces that had resulted in the arrest of 15 party members. Renamo, formerly backed by SA’s apartheid government, fought a 15-year civil war against the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) that ended in 1992.
Mr Dhlakama threatened to (re)start war in the country if government forces do not retreat from strategic positions close to his remote base camp near Gorongosa National Park, and also stop persecuting his party.
Earlier in the week, Renamo had denied Frelimo accusations that armed Renamo members had attacked civilian vehicles, killing three people. Renamo spokesman Fernando Mazanga, retorted that his party “does not attack civilians … we attack those who attack us”.
Mr Mazanga believes the Frelimo government, the ruling party since independence in 1975, is blaming the attacks on Renamo in order to taint the opposition party in the eyes of the electorate. Mozambicans are scheduled to head to municipal polls in November and general elections next year.
Mr Dhlakama often accuses Frelimo of pushing Renamo to war through the ruling party’s “exclusive governance strategy”, illicit enrichment and squandering of the country’s growing wealth; the partisan nature of the police and the government; and electoral fraud.
His warmongering needs to be understood in the context of waning political support for Renamo, his intention to strengthen his political position in the country in general, and among his party’s cadres and sympathisers in particular.
Frelimo has continued to dominate the political, economic and social set-up of the country ever since it edged out its erstwhile civil war rival, Renamo, in the country’s first democratic elections in 1994.
Frelimo won the fourth presidential and parliamentary elections in 2009 by 70% of the popular vote. Frelimo has a twothirds majority in the national parliament, 80% of the seats in the provincial assemblies, and majorities in all elected municipal assemblies.
After Mr Dhlakama’s defeat in the 2009 elections he went into political hibernation, which diminished his role in the country’s political affairs.
Renamo is facing a “struggle within the struggle” in addition to its fight to remain a viable political alternative for the many Mozambicans opposed to the political agenda of the ruling Frelimo elite. The former rebel movement threatened last year to resume conflict 20 years after the end of the civil war.
Mr Dhlakama threatened to (re)start war unless the Frelimoled government agreed to negotiations. That was not the first time Renamo warned about causing disruptions and previous threats have proved hollow.
After Renamo’s election defeat, Mr Dhlakama threatened to hold nationwide demonstrations against what he claimed were fraudulent election results. However, not a single Renamo protest was held. Renamo deputies also ignored his call to boycott the new parliament.
The capacity of Renamo to wage war may have declined as the party’s war veterans have aged and it no longer enjoys support similar to that it received from SA’s apartheid regime.
The Mozambican government is, however, right to consider the former rebel movement’s war talk and request for dialogue. President Armando Guebuza has urged Renamo to refrain from armed conflict. Warmongering could dent Mozambique’s image as a secure place to do business.
The country has witnessed a multibillion-dollar coal-mining investment boom in Tete, home to one of the world’s largest untapped coal and natural gas reserves. Consequently, it is
Renamo is facing a ‘struggle within the struggle’ in addition to its fight to remain a viable political alternative to Frelimo
poised to benefit from significant natural gas and coal discoveries with economic growth expected to exceed 7.5% annually.
However, the Frelimo government faces growing domestic pressure to do more for citizens to benefit from the country’s vast coal and gas deposits. This is particularly so giving the widespread poverty evidenced by the majority of Mozambicans reportedly scrapping by on an average $400 a year despite annual economic growth of about 7% in the past five years.
Other development challenges include: combating corruption; reducing the heavy dependence on external donors; diversifying the sources of economic growth; integrating capital-intensive mega-projects with the state’s poverty reduction strategy; and developing the agriculture sector which employs close to 80% of the workforce but remains largely unproductive, subsistence-based, and where there is a growing “feminisation of poverty.”
More broadly, Mozambique needs to accelerate investment climate reforms; improve provision of public goods to facilitate inclusive growth (for example, infrastructure, education, and health); set up well-targeted safety nets for the most vulnerable; and promote greater citizen participation while building transparent and accountable systems, including those related to extractive industries.
Notwithstanding the challenges affecting the party, Renamo still remains an important role player with enormous responsibilities in terms of the greater political future of the country. The party still has 51 out of 250 parliamentary seats and continues to represent a potentially viable political alternative to Frelimo’s rule.
In order to play this role effectively, Renamo must abandon its warmongering strategy; reshuffle its leadership by giving room to a younger cadre of political actors in its ranks; reformulate and communicate its priorities in relation to the country’s needs relating to issues such as poverty, development and corruption; and implement a decentralisation process in order to implement its strategies at the local level effectively.
Renamo could also urge the government to institutionalise remedial mechanisms to address the needs and expectations of former Renamo combatants who remain in dire needs 20 years after the war. Otherwise, the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, established in 2009 as an off-shoot of Renamo, can build on its control of two of the largest municipalities (Beira and Quelimane) and emerge from the forthcoming municipal elections as a stronger force in Mozambican politics.