ANC losing ground in traditional stronghold
But party argues membership numbers tell only half the story, writes Setumo Stone
THE Eastern Cape is still regarded as the African National Congress’s (ANC’s) traditional stronghold, having produced leaders such as Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and Thabo Mbeki, but those were the party’s glory days and it must be hoping that sentiment sees it home at next year’s elections.
ANC OR Tambo region secretary Thandekile Sabisa says the Eastern Cape is the ANC’s home.
“We cannot betray Mandela,” he says. OR Tambo is the ANC’s second-biggest region in terms of membership in SA after KwaZuluNatal’s eThekwini region.
Mr Sabisa says the majority of people in his region live in underdeveloped rural areas. Despite this, “they know the ANC is their home”, he says.
However, the party has haemorrhaged about a third of its membership in the past 18 months. It is becoming increasingly clear that the ANC is fast losing popularity in the province.
The Eastern Cape is not the only province in which the party has problems. In the North West, senior party members say they fear for their lives, while Limpopo this week saw three of its five regions disbanded and the remaining two placed under administration.
Eastern Cape ANC spokesman Mlibo Qoboshiyane says the drop of 28,000 members since June last year refers only to branches audited for next month’s Eastern Cape provincial conference.
The ANC nationally has grown membership to more than a million members in the past five years, making the Eastern Cape the only province going against the trend. Last year, Eastern Cape membership fell from 225,597 members in January to 187,585 in June.
In November, the province discovered that some of the 180,000 people on its books were “ghost members” created by officials who wanted to control branches and influence the party’s Mangaung national conference.
The province’s numbers now stand at about 160,000, meaning that Limpopo — which had just more than 160,000 last June, could lay claim to being the second- largest province in terms of membership. The biggest is KwaZuluNatal, with 331,820 — and it is apparently still growing.
But Mr Qoboshiyane disagrees, saying membership is surging.
“The membership fund proves significant renewals and joining by new members. We can confirm that membership … far outweighs the audited branches.”
But he admits serious challenges threaten the stability of the ANC in Eastern Cape.
“Branch disagreements result in information being withheld by groupings at lower level.”
That does not mean the membership has declined, says Mr Qoboshiyane.
The highest percentage poll gained by the ANC in the general elections in the Eastern Cape was 84.3% in 1994 — when Mr Mandela was the face of the ANC’s campaign. The last time general elections were held, in 2007, the ANC recorded 71.3% of the poll.
An overall track record of poor service delivery in the province is unlikely to have done much to endear the party to voters.
The ANC controls 44 of the 45 municipalities in the Eastern Cape.
None of them achieved a clean audit in the 2011-12 financial year.
The latest membership figures could reinforce the threat that surfaced in the 2011 local government elections — that the ANC could lose Nelson Mandela Bay metro to the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The embattled metro is the sixth-biggest in SA in terms of population, and the ANC won just more than 50% of the vote in 2011. The DA, in contrast, grew support from 19.1% in 2006 to 40.1%.
The DA will no doubt field former ANC premier Nosimo Balindlela as part of its election campaign in the Eastern Cape. Ms Balindlela left the ANC in 2008 to join the Congress of the People. She joined the DA last November.
Eastern Cape DA strongman Athol Trollip also leaves Parliament at the end of this month to bolster the DA’s election campaign in his home province.
Mr Trollip says that in 1994 the DA — then called the Democratic Party — had just one member in the Eastern Cape legislature.
Today the party has six representatives, and a total of 180 councillors in the whole province.
“I expect a really good election next year, which is why I’m leaving Parliament to lead the DA’s election campaign at home,” he says.
Already, scores of Eastern Cape residents are migrating to the neighbouring Western Cape — run by the DA — to seek economic opportunity.
Perhaps the looming elections will finally tell whether numbers — at least in this case — do lie.