Obama’s climate plan ‘falls short’
PRESIDENT Barack Obama’s plan to reduce carbon pollution — acclaimed by supporters, reviled by opponents — will not be enough to save the planet, researchers say.
PRESIDENT Barack Obama’s plan to reduce carbon pollution — acclaimed by supporters, reviled by opponents — will not be enough to save the planet. That is the view of scientists and European researchers who study climate policies.
It is a numbers game: even if the US, China, Europe and other nations meet their commitments on cutting carbon, world temperatures will rise by 3.1°C on average by 2100, too much to avoid calamity, they say.
The latest version of Mr Obama’s clean power plan and measures already announced by other world leaders are not sufficient to limit global warming to 2°C this century. That is what is needed to prevent dangerous changes to the environment, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations (UN)-organised panel of thousands of scientists.
“It’s worth pointing that out, for everybody who’s high-fiving themselves right now,” said Paul Bledsoe, an aide in president Bill Clinton’s administration.
While the plan released on Monday was more ambitious than previous versions it was unlikely to make a difference on its own, Hanna Fekete, a policy analyst at the New Climate Institute in Cologne, Germany, said. “The change is too small in comparison to global emissions. There are also many other countries driving this.”
Yet she is not despairing. Her organisation is one of four European research centres that run Climate Action Tracker, which studies global-warming policies, as well as pledges by Europe, China, Russia and others. Without action from any of those countries, the world will be in a much worse condition at the end of the century, with the temperature rising 3.9°C instead of 3.1, according to Climate Action Tracker.
Her organisation sees progress in the new Obama plan. The latest iteration would reduce carbon dioxide pollution by an extra 50 megatons, bringing total US cuts to 530 megatons in 2030, Climate Action Tracker said. That was “remarkable, as governments tend to water down plans after their initial announcements, not strengthen them”, the organisation said.
Yet the almost 200 countries trying to reach a landmark global agreement on climate change this year are facing a steep climb. Those talks, hampered by disagreements between poor and rich nations, are moving toward a highstakes meeting in Paris in December.
The International Energy Agency concluded last year that it would take $5trillion in additional investments in efficiency and new energy supplies, beyond what is already in the works, to reach the goal of keeping global warming to only 2°C this century.
Nonetheless, the new US plan showed momentum towards eventually meeting that goal, Ms Fekete said. Although “what would be important coming out of Paris is to have an agreement that makes clear that what we are starting with is only the lower floor, and from there, ambition has to increase”.
As part of the UN talks, the US promised in March to cut emissions by as much as 28% by 2025, relying on policies including the power plant limits and stricter fuel-economy standards.
The latest plan targets a cut in power plant emissions of 32% by 2030. Its most notable feature is its “very strong move against coal”, the dirtiest fossil fuel, according to Nicholas Stern, a member of Britain’s House of Lords and a former chief economist at the World Bank.
“It’s a strong statement of intention to deliver, and that will be noticed,” Baron Stern, now a professor at the London School of Economics, said.
“This will add to determination around the world” to reduce emissions.
The change is too small in comparison to global emissions. There are also many other countries driving this