Syria’s shadow hangs over G-20 talks on economy
SYRIA’s war, migration and the fight against terrorism will force their way on to the agenda when world leaders meet this weekend in Turkey, a country struggling with the fallout from all three.
The Group of 20 (G-20) includes the US, China, Japan, Russia, Canada, Australia, Brazil and SA. Leaders are to meet on Sunday and Monday in the Mediterranean resort of Antalya, primarily to discuss global economic issues.
But the summit takes place just 500km from Syria, whose four-and-a-half-year conflict has seen Islamic State militants transform into a global security threat and spawned Europe’s largest migration flows since the Second World War.
While the talks will largely focus on economic challenges — such as boosting global growth, the fallout of expected US rate hikes and China’s rebalancing — the leaders will also discuss the fight against terrorism and the refugee crisis. Officials said it was only the second time that the G-20, founded to promote global financial stability, would formally tackle issues outside its core remit of co-ordinating international economic policy.
“As the G-20 leaders gather, they will have on their minds heartbreaking images of displaced people fleeing countries gripped by armed conflict and economic distress,” Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), wrote in a blog.
“Migration is a global issue. We must all work together to address it.”
But with so many divergent agendas, it remains to be seen whether the G-20 will be able to shed its “talking shop” image.
The European Union expects a battle to have migration even recognised as global issue with some states including Russia and China, reluctant to discuss it. Officials said reference would be made to the migration crisis in a communique, meaning the wording would have to be agreed by all G-20 members, although they doubted it would go far beyond platitudes.
Turkey, which has taken in 2.2-million refugees from Syria and Iraq and has so far largely shouldered the burden alone, is keen to have a strong statement. Ussal Sahbaz, head of the G-20 studies centre at Turkish research foundation Tepav, said the G-20 would prefer to frame the issue of refugees in terms of their positive economic contribution, and a strong message was unlikely to emerge.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he wanted G-20 leaders to discuss the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, although here again conflicting agendas mean there is little prospect of any major breakthroughs.
Turkey has seen its worst nightmare unfold in Syria. Ankara faces not only the threat from Islamic State, but also the prospect of President Bashar al-Assad, shielded by Russia and Iran, holding on to power, while Kurdish rebels backed by the US make territorial gains.
US officials acknowledge Russian President Vladimir Putin will be far from isolated as he was at last year’s G-20 in Brisbane, Australia, where President Barack Obama spearheaded western criticism of Moscow’s role in Ukraine.
The two leaders are considered unlikely to hold formal talks, but White House spokesman Josh Earnest said he could not rule out an encounter “in the hallway or in some other place where they have an informal opportunity to talk”.
Mr Obama is, however, almost certain to hold one-onone talks with Mr Erdogan, and is likely to try to ease differences over the fight against Islamic State in Syria, especially the role of Kurdish fighters.
Turkey, which opened its air bases in July to the US-led coalition against Islamic State, sees advances by Syrian Kurds along an area abutting Turkey as a threat to its security.
Economic discussions will centre on three main issues: the risks to financial stability from divergent monetary policies in the US and Europe, China’s slowing growth and its transition from an export to a consumer economy, and the effect of slumping commodities prices.
The world’s top two central banks, the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve, appear poised, respectively, to ease and tighten monetary policy. These divergent paths are likely to trigger jolts in financial markets.
A US Treasury official said Washington would urge those at the summit to use monetary, fiscal and structural tools to offset a shortfall in global demand.