Le Pen loses impetus for 2017
THE failure of Marine Le Pen’s National Front to win a single region in the regional run-offs has dented hopes of her becoming president of France after the 2017 election.
THE failure of Marine Le Pen’s National Front to win a single region in the regional runoffs puts an end — at least for the moment — to any talk of her becoming president of France.
Regional elections, with their low turnout and proportional system, favour insurgent parties such as the National Front, as illustrated by its strong showing in the first round a week ago.
Yet in Sunday’s second round, voters from the left and the traditional right ganged up to deliver a series of defeats nationwide to the anti-European Union, antiimmigrant party.
The National Front had promised a historic breakthrough after coming out of the initial round ahead in six of France’s 13 regions, with strong chances of winning three: Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur in the south, Nord-Pasde-Calais in the north, and Alsace-Lorraine in the east.
The party responded by withdrawing its candidates in those regions and calling on its supporters to vote for the Republicans, who won all three.
That is a foretaste of what may happen in the 2017 presidential vote in the country.
“When faced with the National Front, 60% to 70% of the French are ready to deny it victory,” Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, head of the Socialist Party, said on Europe 1 radio on Monday.
While polls have put Ms Le Pen’s support at more than 20% in the first round of a presidential election if it were held today, she is the country’s most disliked politician. According to an Elabe survey of 1,003 voters released on December 3,63% have a negative opinion of her, with 48% saying they “strongly” dislike her.
President François Hollande was strongly disliked by 33% and former French president and Republicans party leader Nicolas Sarkozy by 40%.
What is more, 67% of the French have a negative opinion of the National Front, an Odoxa poll released on December 11 found.
Broken down, 76% of respondents said it was “discriminatory”, 66% said it would bring “disorder” and 63% agreed it “has an economic programme that would be dangerous for the country”.
The higher turnout in a French presidential election than in regional ballots would also work against Ms Le Pen.
Her party did well in the first round of the regionals when about 50% voted; it did less well in the second round when 59% of the electorate went to the polls, at least some of whom voted tactically.
Turnout was about 80% in the last presidential election in 2012.
“With a 50% participation rate, Le Pen took 6-million votes, so we can roughly estimate that she could take up to 9-million votes in a presidential election, or 23%,” said Yves-Marie Cann, director of political studies at pollsters Elabe.
That is a long way short of translating into a presidential victory, according to Mr Cann.
In regional elections, any list of candidates garnering more than 10% in the first round makes it to the second round.
In parliamentary elections, only the top two in each constituency go to the second round, the same system used in presidential votes.
“We mustn’t confuse regional elections fought on a different system with National Assembly elections, where the FN (National Front) has no chance at all of coming to power in the foreseeable future,” said Jim Shields, head of French studies at Aston University in Birmingham, England.
“This is where the FN is punished for being a solitary force within a system that demands the ability to strike alliances with other parties,” Prof Shields said.
The National Front won just two seats out of 577 in the 2012 parliamentary elections even though Ms Le Pen had taken almost 18% of the seats in the first round of the presidential elections just a few weeks earlier, when she was placed third behind Mr Hollande and Mr Sarkozy.
Ms Le Pen had been counting on winning control of some regions this time around to show that her party was fit to govern in the run-up to the next presidential election.
That is an opportunity she now seems unlikely to get.
“The National Front remains an isolated party that scares people,” Brice Teinturier, director at polling company Ipsos, said on France2 television on Sunday.