Cabinet skips nuclear reality check

DEAR SIR — In the same week, the Cabinet gives the green light to nuclear procurement and President Jacob Zuma gives the red light to his finance minister. Both decisions show a government unmoored from economic reality, although the market forced a rude awakening for Mr Zuma on the latter.

A 9,600MW nuclear build could still sink us. In giving the green light to nuclear, the Cabinet has chosen to ignore the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update of 2013 that cautions against making any decision on nuclear procurement at this time.

The IRP update concluded that the revised projected demand for electricity would not warrant any nuclear baseload power until after 2025 or even before 2035.

SA cannot afford to finance a 9,600MW nuclearbuild programme. No commercial loan will be issued for nuclear, so it would have to be funded by a government-to-government agreement probably offering a guaranteed electricity price. To cover this, all the electricity generated by nuclear power would have to be sold, and would therefore have to be forced onto the grid ahead of more competitive options.

If not already, by 2025 these will be: concentrated solar power with storage, solar photovoltaic, wind, natural gas and regional hydro in combination. Forcing expensive nuclear electricity onto the grid could reduce demand further. This is especially likely if consumers can get off the grid entirely, assuming, as seems likely, a cost-effective battery will be available by then.

These are some of the considerations the Cabinet has ignored. Rod Gurzynski Kommetjie