Roll-out of 5G to enable internet of things
Next mobile generation promises big opportunities, write Ian King and Scott Moritz
EVERY few years, mobile carriers promise to turbocharge smartphones with new “G” technology. Most recently, 4G began replacing 3G, and people celebrated the fact that they could watch cat videos without their screens locking up (well, most of the time).
This northern summer, Verizon and AT&T will start testing 5G. If this fifthgeneration mobile network works as advertised, it could be far more transformational than previous versions, accelerating adoption of the internet of things: smart homes, driverless cars, surgical robots and more. According to one estimate, the number of connected things could more than double to 50billion globally by 2020 — and reach 500-billion 10 years after that.
The 5G rollout represents the biggest expansion of the internet to date and could generate billions of dollars of business for the likes of Cisco, Nokia, Ericsson, Qualcomm and Intel. All are vying to build the nuts and bolts of the new networks; their ability to lasso contracts could determine whether some of them survive.
“5G is not about another G with super-fast i nternet,” says Ericsson CEO Hans Vestberg. “5G is about beyond smartphones and tablets. We think 5G could provide an excellent opportunity to transform our world.”
While 5G presents an opportunity for a range of industry stalwarts, leadership in one generation of technology is no guarantee of dominance in the next. Nokia failed to see the mobile web coming and lost to Qualcomm, Samsung and Apple’s game-changing iPhone. When 4G arrived, Sprint bet on Wi-Max, but was forced to adopt technology used by Verizon.
There is no question 5G will happen; it’s just not clear who will benefit most because much of the technology has yet to be tested in the real world.
As any smartphone user can attest, even the latest 4G networks sometimes struggle to handle millions of people tweeting, watching videos and playing games — leaving us grinding our teeth waiting precious seconds for Google to return search results. That is not good enough when a self-driving car needs to decide whether it is safe to cross an intersection and has to wait while someone gets the next data packet for the Netflix movie they are streaming.
So, the next network will have to be far more responsive. For years, the industry has focused largely on the amount of data it can force through the system in a given time — a concept known as throughput — with rudimentary attempts to ensure everyone gets what they need during peak demand.
The new focus is latency — how quickly a network responds to a request. To ensure a robot reacts instantly to a surgeon operating remotely, 5G networks will have builtin processing, store data closer to where it is needed and use multiple forms of radio waves to process traffic. This must be controlled by advanced software that can adapt dynamically what gets sent where and when according to rapidly changing needs.
“Latency matters,” said Gartner analyst Akshay Sharma. “Would you rely on getting your data from across country or would you rather have it updated locally as it happens?”
The next step is getting billions of things talking directly to each other rather than going through centrally controlled networks, as most connected devices do now. Once that happens, whole new vistas open up. For example, Ericsson and truck maker Scania want to make it possible for big commercial rigs to drive in tight formation to reduce wind resistance and burn less fuel. The 5G network would herd together trucks, which would then “talk” to prevent high-speed crashes.
Finally, devices themselves will have to get smarter, working out what traffic to send when. A water meter does not need to clog up the network during a Soccer World Cup final. Not every sensor in a building needs to call the fire department when the temperature spikes. More intelligent networks will minimise traffic and assign the right priority to packets of information.
None of this will come cheap. Spending on 5G equipment will reach $400bn globally, according to an estimate by Chetan Sharma Consulting.
Building the 2G networks in the 1990s cost a relatively paltry $130bn. Companies eager to benefit — and avoid being left behind — are salivating. Chip maker Intel sees a chance finally to get into mobile and shift away from the shrinking PC business. Ericsson and Cisco are bringing their expertise to the party — mobile equipment for the former; wired gear for the latter.
Mobile carriers will profit too. Chetan Sharma expects them to be able to charge five times what they are charging now. That is not just from jacking up phone bills, but collecting access fees for wearables — think heart-rate monitors and high-definition virtual reality glasses — and “smart gear”, including your drones, cars, bikes and even dog collars.
All these connections, although only a few bucks a month each, could run up a hefty tab.
Industry executives, of course, say the benefits will more than outweigh the cost. In an e-mail, AT&T chief strategy officer John Donovan describes a bright future with “new experiences in virtual reality, self-driving cars, robotics, smart cities, healthcare and so much more”.