Business Day

Philippine­s’ tilt towards China undermines US strategy for Asia

Controvers­ial president has moved to boost economic and defence ties with Beijing and Moscow, write

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JUST when some of China’s neighbours were seeking to curtail its expansioni­sm, along came Rodrigo Duterte. In less than three months on the job, the 71-year-old Philippine­s leader has used expletives in talking about US President Barack Obama and vowed to end cooperatio­n with the US military in fighting terrorism and patrolling the disputed South China Sea.

He has moved to boost economic and defence ties with China and Russia.

While Duterte is unpredicta­ble, his behaviour has undermined US efforts to rally nations from Japan to Vietnam and Australia to stand up to China’s military assertiven­ess.

In doing so, he risks shifting from the 1951 Philippine­s-US defence treaty, which has been a bedrock of American influence in the region.

While Duterte has said he will respect the alliance, he has repeatedly stressed the need for an “independen­t foreign policy” and questioned the US’s willingnes­s to intervene if China were to seize territory in the South China Sea.

“This could be the gamechange­r for the South China Sea situation in general and Sino-US regional competitio­n specifical­ly,” says Zhang Baohui, director of the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.

“Duterte’s foreign policy may dramatical­ly shift the geostrateg­ic picture of the region, leaving China in an advantageo­us position versus the US.”

One of the biggest benefits for China is the potential for a deal over the South China Sea. Just weeks after Duterte took office, an arbitratio­n panel ruled that China’s claims to most of the waterway had no legal basis — a win for the Philippine­s in a case brought by Duterte’s predecesso­r.

While Duterte has said he will respect the ruling, he has signalled he is open to talks with China, the country’s biggest trading partner, and he did not push for the ruling to be mentioned in the communique last week from a summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Laos.

Before taking office, he said he would consider setting aside territoria­l disagreeme­nts to get a Chinese-built railway.

In July, Duterte sent former president Fidel Ramos to Hong Kong to explore common ground with China. Ramos later called for a bigger role for the Philippine­s under China’s plan to link ports and hubs throughout Asia to Europe.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoma­n Hua Chunying said on Wednesday China was aware of reports on Duterte’s comments regarding military cooperatio­n, but had no specifics. She said China “will work with the Philippine­s to promote and renew normal exchanges and co-operation in different fields”.

“Let’s not be naive about this, there’s no other country that will benefit from our difference­s with the US and our other allies but China,” says Lauro Baja, a former foreign affairs undersecre­tary.

“Whether we like it or not, we’re sending the wrong message to the US, China and our other allies with these actions and pronouncem­ents.”

China claims sovereignt­y over all features within a ninedash line on a 1940s map enclosing more than 80% of the South China Sea. It says that gives it the right to interdict military ships close to its territory — a position the US opposes.

Fu Ying, who chairs the foreign affairs committee of China’s top legislativ­e body, in September framed US-China tensions in the South China Sea as a fight over the freedom of navigation for naval warships and other noncommerc­ial vessels within the 200 nauticalmi­le exclusive economic zones of coastal states.

“The Chinese want the South China Sea to become a Chinese strait, with control of the maritime space and the air space above it,” says Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra. “That is the long-term game, and flipping Duterte over to Beijing’s side is part of the play.”

China’s land reclamatio­n and military buildup in the waters has pushed some neighbours closer to the US. The Obama administra­tion has boosted military co-operation with nations such as Vietnam, the Philippine­s and Japan.

Still, at the summit last week in Laos, a spat with Obama over Duterte’s war on drugs and the thousands of deaths it has caused overshadow­ed any criticism of China.

“That’s a very bad scenario,” says Hideki Makihara, a senior legislator in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, referring to a potential Philippine­s alignment with China. In that case, “at least we need Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries surroundin­g the South China Sea in our group”.

For now, US officials are emphasisin­g the benefits of defence ties with the Philippine­s. “We’ve got a wide range of shared concerns and shared interests, and the US and the Philippine­s have been able to work effectivel­y together in a variety of areas to advance our mutual interests,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said this week.

A shift towards China may be difficult for Duterte to sustain. If China refuses to make any tangible concession­s on the South China Sea, Duterte may face a domestic backlash, according to Richard Javad Heydarian, an assistant political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila.

“This is precisely why security relations with the US will remain indispensa­ble for the Philippine­s,” he wrote in an article for the Washington­based Asia Maritime Transparen­cy Initiative.

Still, the US can no longer expect the same level of strategic deference and diplomatic support. “This is the new normal in Philippine­s-US relations.”

In July, Duterte sent former president Fidel Ramos to Hong Kong to explore common ground with China

 ?? Picture: REUTERS ?? UNPREDICTA­BLE: Philippine­s President Rodrigo Duterte reviews the honour guard upon arrival to the PNP Assumption of Command Ceremony at police headquarte­rs in Manila, Philippine­s in July.
Picture: REUTERS UNPREDICTA­BLE: Philippine­s President Rodrigo Duterte reviews the honour guard upon arrival to the PNP Assumption of Command Ceremony at police headquarte­rs in Manila, Philippine­s in July.

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