Russia polls still not truly free
FIVE years have passed since the street protests that erupted following what were widely perceived as rigged parliamentary elections in Russia. But recent events have already made clear that anyone hoping that Sunday’s election to the Duma, Russia’s lower house, would be significantly freer and more open was set for disappointment.
Just two weeks before the ballot, Russian authorities blacklisted the Levada Centre, the country’s last independent pollster, as a “foreign agent”, leaving it barely able to function. This was ostensibly for receiving foreign funding. More likely it was because Levada’s polls showed falling support for the proKremlin United Russia party.
Memories of the 2011 demonstrations are still fresh in President Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin. So Moscow has taken steps to make this poll appear a little more transparent and competitive. It is reverting to a mixed system for the first time since 2003. Half the seats will come from party lists, half from singlemember districts.
Far more parties have been allowed to register than five years ago. Vladimir Churov, the discredited Putin crony who headed the Central Election Commission, has been replaced by Ella Pamfilova, a former human rights watchdog. Pamfilova has said she will resign if there are widespread voting violations.
But the Kremlin has also acted to ensure the election still delivers the desired result. Bringing the poll forward to September from its traditional December date appears aimed at shortening the election campaign and lowering turnout.
By squeezing other nongovernmental organisations besides Levada, the authorities have eroded civil society’s capacity to challenge questionable results. And the most problematic opposition leader, the anticorruption blogger Alexei Navalny, has been excluded through trumped-up legal charges.
United Russia is therefore likely to dominate again. Putin has “managed” democracy without any real modernisation. He pulled this off, in part, thanks to the continued boost to his popularity from Russia’s annexation of Crimea and bare-knuckle moves to re-establish itself as a world power.
While the president has replaced some senior positions and new faces will enter the Duma, its structure is becoming more ossified even as the budget becomes more squeezed. The tension that creates is likely to increase in the 18 months between now and still more important elections in 2018 for the presidency. London, September 16.