Rand gain anticipates favourable outcome

The markets had priced in a favourable decision from S&P Global Ratings before markets closed on Friday with the rand strengthening against major currencies.

Analysts said the markets had expected the favourable outcome, based mainly on the favourable ratings from Moody’s and Fitch earlier.

The rand gained 36c to breach the psychological R14 barrier against the dollar, closing at R13.80 just ahead of S&P’s evening release of its review of SA’s sovereign rating.

Against the euro, the rand strengthened by 33c, closing at R14.72. It was 19c stronger against the pound at R17.57.

Yields on the benchmark 10year bond fell slightly to 9.03%, indicating a reduction in government’s interest expenses.

Wayne McCurrie, a portfolio manager at Ashburton Investments, said the S&P decision had been expected by the markets, especially after the other two major agencies – Moody’s and Fitch – kept their ratings unchanged. “The rand and bond markets expected this but the news is still good and we could

expect small gains,” he said. “Bonds specifically have done quite well considering how much US and other bond yields have risen globally.”

Yields on the 10-year US Treasury note have risen 16.05% in the past six months, while German bunds more than doubled over the same period.

Petri Redelinghuys, head of trading at Inkunzi Wealth, said the rating was largely not a surprise to market participants.

“I noticed that the equity market had gone very flat and sideways in the later part of the day, although a short while before we closed it rallied rather sharply into the close. I would imagine that this was on the back of the expectation that we would not be downgraded.”