Bullish bull and cautious claptrap

LinkedIn guest columnist Raj K Mitra started the new year with a rant about “why financial analysts speak or write the way they do”, concluding that while he was “cautiously optimistic” the post would provide food for thought, “I have no clue what this oxymoronic phrase actually means”.

His list of favourite dumb phrases used by financial analysts and journalists “as a cloak for their assumed dignity” includes:

Our bullish case is conservative. We are cautiously optimistic.

We are constructive on the market.

We are in a cyclical bull market in a secular bear.

We have a strong BUY on the stock.

We have a strong SELL on the stock.

“Well, if optimism is cautious, it’s not optimism in the first place,” says Mitra. “Similarly, if bullishness is conservative, it’s not a bullish case to begin with. In addition, the satanic sprinkling of adjectives in investment communication has almost killed their shock value. The most intriguing part, however, is that this is probably the only industry where forecasters are never wrong. If company X failed to meet expectations … it’s your forecast that’s off the mark from actuals, not the other way round.

“Every large fall in the market isn’t a crash. Every ‘negative GDP growth’ isn’t a recession, either. Perhaps it’s only in Wall Street lingo where ‘will’ and ‘likely’ go together … it’s important to ensure that everyone understands everything you say. Otherwise, it’s a con game.”