Divided Turkey in turn to autocracy

It is no exaggeration to say Turkey has entered a daunting and unpredictable new chapter in its political history as a result of Sunday’s referendum, which narrowly approved the introduction of sweeping constitutional changes granting its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, unprecedented and wide-ranging powers. If implemented, these reforms will all but recreate Turkey as a sultanate, almost a century after Ataturk founded the republic on the ruins of the Ottoman empire.

For Europe, and for Turkey’s western allies within Nato, the transformation is likely to have important consequences. Relations, already tense, are bound to deteriorate further, at a time when Turkey’s co-operation on the refugee issue in particular is still crucial. The wary reaction in Brussels, Berlin and Paris testified to this new discomfort. In particular, Erdogan was warned that if he fulfilled his threat to reintroduce the death penalty he would immediately end all prospect of rapprochement with the EU.

The referendum was won by a narrow margin; the opposition alleges the vote was stained by violations. International observers say it took place “on an unlevel playing field”. None of this has prevented Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its supporters from heralding what they see as a new era destined to entrench one man’s power as well as a nation’s strength and resilience in the face of external and domestic enemies.

Turkey’s turn to autocracy is now all but complete. Yet it remains a divided nation, one in which the clash between those who stand for Ataturk’s legacy and those who want to overturn it, between defenders of a secular system and proponents of conservative Islamic values, between Kurds and Turkish nationalists, between once dominant military structures and new AKP elites, is bound to fuel more tensions. London, April 17.