ANC alliance at risk if Ramaphosa loses
ANC allies the South African Communist Party (SACP) and Cosatu are hedging their bets. Should the ANC’s December conference not go their way, there is a strong chance of the SACP cementing its decision to contest elections — and of taking the union federation along with it.
At its meeting in August, Cosatu’s central executive committee discussed the possibility of leaving with the party, a decision it will take at its next congress.
While Cosatu general secretary Bheki Ntshalintshali vehemently denied that a Plan B was in place if ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa failed to take over, it emerged this week that the federation had discussed “divorcing” the ANC if this happened.
Cosatu also took a decision to push the SACP to contest the 2019 election. At its national congress in July, the SACP decided it would contest future elections, but did not specify when it would begin doing so.
December then is a watershed moment for the alliance. Whatever happens will have a profound effect on the ANC and its allies.
When Cosatu was expelling the National Union of Metalworkers of SA in 2014, who would have thought that the federation would be mulling the very action for which its former largest affiliate was sanctioned: suggesting that Cosatu leave the tripartite alliance.
Relations between the partners are at the lowest ebb in their history after the SACP and Cosatu called on President Jacob Zuma to step down and barred him from addressing their events.
These moves came after Zuma’s ANC unilaterally cancelled a political council scheduled to be held between the partners in June, and has not reconvened it. A bilateral meeting between the SACP and the ANC was cancelled due to issues around the agenda of the meeting.
The ANC and the SACP attacked each other after it emerged that the former would discipline MPs who may have voted against Zuma in the motion of no confidence in August. The SACP accused the ANC of taking factional decisions, while the ANC termed the communist party “arrogant” and ill-disciplined.
The partners have not met since Cosatu and the SACP’s call for Zuma to step down. It is, therefore, no surprise that they would be uneasy about an Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma presidency, largely seen as an extension of that of Zuma.
Cosatu and the SACP are at the forefront of Ramaphosa’s campaign – the federation was the first to come out in his support — and while the SACP has not formally done so, its support for him is clear. It would be rather awkward to negotiate a “reconfigured alliance” with an ANC under leaders the partners had effectively alienated.
The departure of the SACP and Cosatu would have a profound effect on politics in the country.
The SACP has said it would not contest elections in its current form, but would form a broad front, which would probably include Cosatu.
There are moves to reignite the old United Democratic Front, with discussions taking place across SA. These attempts now centre on state capture, but are likely to widen and it is possible that aligned organisations would form part of this broad front.
Interesting possibilities, but still it remains a long shot. The stance taken by the SACP and Cosatu is factional and based on whether their preferred candidate succeeds.
No matter how it is dressed up, this is what it boils down to, which explains the SACP holding a special congress early in 2018. At that gathering, depending on what happens in December, concrete decisions will be taken as opposed to the wishy washy resolutions that emerged in July.
For now, among leaders at least, it appears to be a threat dangled over the ANC: elect our man or else. This is not the case for a large swathe of SACP members, who are more determined to push for the party to become a genuine alternative that would contest elections on its own.
The threat may well be an idle one, as it was in 2007 on the part of leaders, and the alliance may limp on, but the allies would have lost any credibility they had left.
FOR NOW, AMONG LEADERS AT LEAST, IT APPEARS TO BE A THREAT DANGLED OVER THE ANC: ELECT OUR MAN OR ELSE