SA fails to cash in on population shifts
SA has been “sadly lacking” in the supporting conditions necessary for a country to maximise the potential benefits of its demographic transition, a Statistics SA report released on Wednesday says.
SA has been “sadly lacking” in the supporting conditions necessary for a country to maximise the potential benefits of its demographic transition, says a Statistics SA report released on Wednesday.
The report noted that given “the absence of a demographic dividend for 90% of the population, namely black Africans and coloureds — a demographic disaster is in the making”.
The report, Whither a Demographic Dividend South Africa: The Overton Window of Political Possibilities, said that SA had undergone a demographic transition with the potential to generate a demographic dividend. But the necessary socioeconomic preconditions and required policies were absent.
These included low unemployment, policies that support economic growth and create jobs, good governance, education and training, and healthcare and family planning.
A demographic dividend is the additional economic growth associated with a demographic transition, but its achievement needs a strong economy.
The potential for a demographic dividend arises when a country experiences a longterm increase in its working-age ratio, the percentage of its population that is of working age (15–64 years). With more labour resources available for production and fewer resources required for taking care of the young and elderly, there is a potential for a substantial stimulus to economic growth.
This happened in six Asian economies — China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand — and, to a lesser extent, six Latin American ones: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela.
The report notes that SA’s rate of population growth slowed from an average of 2.6% a year in the 1960s and 1970s to 1.5% in 2010–17. There were long-term declines in mortality and fertility rates and the working-age ratio increased from 55% in 1960, to 65% in 2010.
These changes reflect a demographic transition with the potential to generate a dividend. However, the report observes “there is extensive statistical and other evidence that the supporting conditions needed to maximise the potential benefits of a demographic transition have been sadly lacking in SA”.
Insufficient progress has been made in tackling the legacy of apartheid. The skills profile of the population has also seen little improvement since 2008. In this context, “a demographic transition, in the form of a growing working-age population, could become a curse rather than a blessing” because it could translate into an army of unemployed youth and significantly higher social tension.