Only good leaders can pull us from the brink
• There is hope for SA if the nation can use its skills to put tried-and-tested economic solutions into practice
If President Jacob Zuma’s firing of former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene flushed the extent of corruption and state capture out into the open and deflated investors’ confidence, then his manipulation of a resurgent black African nationalism to justify his purge of Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas punctured it decisively.
The ANC’s behaviour in shielding Zuma from scandal after scandal has fuelled the fear that it might be just a matter of time before SA fails. Adrian Gore, CEO of the Discovery Group who has travelled on several international roadshows with Gordhan, finds himself frequently called on to defend the country against such a view.
“There are very few countries which have always had this question mark [hanging over it] — when is Armageddon coming? When is the country going to fail? For some reason, South Africans believe our problems are intractable,” said Gore.
“In the nineties it was crime, then we had the labour issues, then the Eskom issues and at the time, these were seen as a sign of impending doom. Now it’s state capture. Yes, it’s [helluva] risky and it’s going to be a bumpy year — but it’s not going to be the end,” he said.
Even though SA has the National Development Plan [[NDP], it has failed to restore business confidence or unite the country behind an inspirational vision. People need a vision to have a sense that they have a shared future in the country.
“There’s amazing goodwill in SA. It is easy to bring people together to focus on common aspirations and goals. But we don’t have a long-term vision — that’s our fatal problem as a country,” said Gore. “The only vision of ourselves we’ve ever had is [as] the rainbow nation. But lately, the only message most people are getting is that Armageddon’s coming.”
SA’s challenge, economist Ricardo Hausmann said, was not to retreat into divisive identity politics but to find a way to exploit the value that had been created from its diversity. This meant creating a new shared sense of togetherness — a world view that, he acknowledged, was more commonly associated with Nelson Mandela.
“Ultimately, the question is whether SA, like Zimbabwe, sees itself as a black African nation with a few unfortunate impurities, or as the ‘rainbow nation’ promoted by Nelson Mandela, a country that is stronger because it builds on its existing know-how for the whole country and celebrates its diversity.”
Until roughly the end of Thabo Mbeki’s presidency (which coincided with the global financial crisis, the ANC’s Polokwane conference and the ascendancy of Zuma), the investor community’s confidence in SA was based on the belief that although the ANC had inherited a deeply divided and potentially explosive country, the risk of a catastrophic blow-up would recede as the economy grew and transformation policies reduced inequality.
“Investors always assumed the ANC would remain comfortably in power and able to keep its constituency patient,” said political analyst Nic Borain.
“An ANC with its back against the wall is a different animal entirely.”
Who could have imagined that the liberation party of Mandela would resort to antiwhite racism, censorship and fake intelligence reports in response to the country’s economic problems, having never really attempted to implement the country’s development plan — a plan crafted by experts at its behest? [Political analyst] RWJohnson predicted in 2016 that instead of carrying out the reforms necessary to ensure its own survival, the ANC would “adopt a defensive crouch”, which it would maintain throughout local election losses and further ratings downgrades. “As these things occur, its mood
LATELY, THE ONLY MESSAGE MOST PEOPLE ARE GETTING IS THAT ARMAGEDDON’S COMING
will get increasingly sour, panicky and paranoid. Its recourse to racial nationalism will become increasingly shrill.
“But, of course, it is playing with fire and, as recent university incidents have shown, it is all too easy for this sort of racial mobilisation to tip over into interracial violence. Should that occur on any scale, it would undo the whole post-1990 settlement and leave the country in no-man’s land,” he warned.
The overarching solution to SA’s current crisis is honest, authentic leadership — not just on the part of the government, but business, labour and civil society too. If, as Gore believes, SA’s national inclination is to be forgiving and easily inspired, then with the right leadership, the country could surely take off. “If the current government stays in power, we’re in for a very tough time,” said Gore. “If we have new leadership that just gets out of the way, we’ll be okay. But if we had a sea change, [under the leadership of] someone constructive and positive, then the economy could fly.”
In 2015, a team of analysts from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) spent months studying the South African economy and conducting interviews with local economists, business leaders and other key stakeholders. Their aim was to understand why the country was so bad at translating economic growth into better living standards for its people. Their findings surprised them.
“We thought it would be that SA must focus on one important area like unemployment. But the resounding message was that SA needs to fundamentally lift leadership at all levels if it is to transform wealth into wellbeing,” said BCG senior partner Adam Ikdal. “There’s no shortage of policy analysis in SA but rather of policy implementation, which in turn hangs on the quality of leadership.”
Economic solutions were quite straightforward and proven, concluded the BCG’s final report. “They have been shown to work time and again around the world. SA should not permit itself to be left behind. But … a concerted programme of execution is essential. In many instances this will mean putting the greater good ahead of individual or institutional interests.” Still, Ikdal felt there was plenty of reason for hope, noting that SA had significant strengths.
The NDP was one. Innovative solutions were also being developed by business and civil society, sometimes because they couldn’t wait for [the] government to act. But, Ikdal cautioned, private sector leadership could not be a substitute for a lack of government leadership.
And while hope had carried SA a great distance, it needed to be fuelled by progress.