Authoritarianism plagues Ethiopia

Ethiopia is the China of Africa. Like China, it traces its history back thousands of years and considers itself a regional giant. Like China 30 years ago, it has a serious development plan based on raising health and educational standards, improving farm yields and industrialisation with the help of foreign capital. Unfortunately, also like China, it has an authoritarian government that represses its people to stay in power.

There is a crucial contrast with China. Ethiopia maintains a firm grip over strategic sectors and planned its march towards putative prosperity with military ruthlessness. That has stifled entrepreneurialism and jeopardised a strong economic record that saw growth average about 8% since 2000 — at least according to official numbers.

Political risks form the gravest threat to the country’s current governance system. Although it insists otherwise, the ruling coalition is dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, which is seen to favour ethnic Tigrayans, who make up only 6% of the population. The cabal in charge seems genuinely to believe that only it can frogmarch Ethiopia to middle-income status. Its plans have run into opposition from the Oromo and Amhara ethnic groups, which together make up 60% of the population.

Turmoil erupted in 2016 with the killing of at least 55 people at a religious festival. Several thousand may have been killed since, and many thousands more are still imprisoned. The government must do more to deepen democracy and demonstrate that it rules for all Ethiopians. Enforced land seizures must stop. The media should be freed so that Ethiopians can have an informed debate about their priorities.

Of about 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, few matter more than Ethiopia.

A successful development agenda there could help ignite a continent badly in need of role models. Sadly, for all its economic and social achievements, authoritarian Ethiopia is still far from that. London, January 9.