Maize hit by drought as mixed rainfall changes outlook

Iconcluded 2017 with a positive outlook for SA’s agriculture in 2018 — underpinned by good chances of La Niña weather conditions during the 2017-18 summer. This essentially meant that the country was expected to receive above-normal rainfall, which would have been good for agricultural activity.

Disappointingly, that picture has changed and is now mixed.

The eastern parts of SA received good rainfall during the festive season and crops are generally in a fair condition, although some have been affected by hail in areas, including Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, the eastern Free State and the northern parts of the Eastern Cape.

The central and western parts of SA received very little rainfall in the past few weeks of 2017 and had a drier start to 2018. This led to delays in summer crop planting, particularly in North West and the western Free State. These provinces collectively account for 68% of the intended maize planting area of 2.47-million hectares in the 2017-18 season.

They also account for the lion’s share (86%) of the 665,500ha intended for sunflower seed production in the 2017-18 season.

The most recent Grain SA survey suggests that farmers in both these provinces have been unable to meet their maize planting intentions due to persistent dryness.

Farmers in North West have planted 70% of the intended area of 580,000ha and farmers in the central and northwestern parts of the Free State have planted about 75% of their intended areas.

The optimal maize planting window has already been closed, so even if sudden, widespread showers occurred, there would be minimal improvement in planting activity in these provinces. Any maize planted outside the optimal window risks being affected by frost later in the year, which increases the likelihood of poor yields.

Farmers growing sunflowers have so far planted about 40% of their intended areas in North West.

In the north-western Free State, the progress is much slower, with only 20% of the intended areas planted so far.

Fortunately, the optimal planting window only closes on January 20 and if there is good rainfall before this cut-off date, farmers could still plant sunflowers.

At the time of writing, the weather forecasts painted an optimistic picture of 16mm60mm rainfall until January 24. While this will not be sufficient to replenish soil moisture fully, it will be a welcome development following weeks of dryness.

Due to record maize and oilseed harvests in the 2016-17 production season, the country is still well supplied in the short to medium term.

This good availability is reflected in commodity prices, which are still under pressure despite the current unfavourable weather conditions. On January 9, the white maize spot price was about 40% lower than the corresponding period in 2017, with trading at about R1,991 a tonne. The sunflower seed spot price was down 14% year on year, trading at about R4,757 a tonne.

While this is an immediate concern for farming communities, the outlook on food inflation will not change significantly in the near to medium term due to the buffer of large stocks from the previous season.

A clearer picture of SA’s 2017-18 grain and oilseed production will emerge later in January, when the National Crop Estimate Committee releases its preliminary planting estimates data.

For now, the country can just kneel and pray for rainfall.

Perhaps the expected La Niña will materialise later in the season — hopefully not too late for all the crops as some are already wilting.