Business Day

SA supermarke­ts can’t compete with UK and German chains

- Chris Gilmour is an investment analyst.

Although there are mixed signals emerging from the UK economic performanc­e, retail sales are holding up well, if the findings of the Kantar World panel are anything to go by.

In its recently released analysis of fourth quarter supermarke­t trading (including the Christmas period), total supermarke­t sales rose by 3.8% compared with the same period in 2016.

With UK inflation averaging about 2.5%, this means that real growth is apparent in the food and grocery aisles. December 22 saw sales of £747m, putting it firmly in the history books as the busiest shopping day ever.

However, this broad figure masks some very important difference­s within the supermarke­t sector. Among the large establishe­d chains, Tesco was the clear winner, increasing its sales by 3% and leaving its main rivals — being Asda, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s — well behind, all on about 2% growth.

While Tesco will draw some satisfacti­on on easily beating its rivals, German discounter­s Aldi and Lidl make its growth look puny. Both these firms grew sales by 17% for the period.

Aldi and Lidl have no comparison­s in SA. Selling a relatively limited assortment of predominan­tly private label goods in their no-frills outlets, they compete almost exclusivel­y on price. It is fair to say that on a strictly comparativ­e basis, prices at Aldi and Lidl are about 20% lower than in any of the traditiona­l supermarke­ts. And while it took a bit of time for the British middle-income shopper to get over the perceived stigma of entering Aldi or Lidl, any such hang-ups have evaporated.

Aldi has about 7% share of the UK grocery market, while Lidl has about 5%. Although relatively small in comparison with the big four — Tesco on 28%, Sainsbury’s on 16%, Asda on 15% and Morrisons on 11% — both Aldi and Lidl are taking market share away from everyone and at these growth rates, it won’t be long before both are in the 10% plus market share bracket.

At a regional level, outside of the main metropolit­an areas, the big four are also experienci­ng pressure from privately owned operations such as B&M and Home Bargains, both of which have recently introduced groceries to their long-establishe­d lines of general merchandis­e.

South Africans are unlikely to ever enjoy the benefits of ultracheap shopping as offered by the likes of Aldi and Lidl, for a few reasons. Firstly, profit margins among SA food retailers are extremely thin and are thus not attractive enough to entice discounter­s into the local arena. Privately owned Aldi and Lidl enjoy higher margins, even though they are discounter­s.

Secondly, supply line logistics in SA, especially regarding private label offerings are too tight to mention. Locally, Woolworths has for many years managed to capture most of the private label capacity in SA and that situation shows no signs of changing. And finally, from a geographic perspectiv­e, SA is just too far away from Europe, Asia or the Americas to make cheap importatio­n of manufactur­ed foodstuffs on a grand scale a viable option.

Spending several weeks in Scotland recently, I shopped in supermarke­ts across the spectrum. The following remark will attract the ire of local operators, but I have been consistent in my opinion that, at current exchange rates, I can comfortabl­y fill a UK supermarke­t trolley with comparable manufactur­ed foodstuffs and general household products for a great deal less than what it would cost me in SA. I must qualify this remark by saying that this excludes meat and alcohol.

I firmly believe the reason lies with the food and household product manufactur­ers, who appear unable, or too greedy, to produce competitiv­e offerings.

 ??  ?? CHRIS GILMOUR
CHRIS GILMOUR

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