Public service wage outcome will set the tone for other sectors
The outcome of the current public service negotiations, where public service unions and the government are heading for confrontation, may determine the labour relations climate for 2018. A negotiated settlement would be a victory for collective bargaining, but a strike by 300,000 public servants would be catastrophic.
This looming dispute will create an opportunity for newly elected ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa to display his mediation skills.
At beleaguered Telkom and ArcelorMittal, negotiations will kick off in February. Telkom has already indicated that it may not be able to grant an increase and a strike is therefore a real possibility. The dynamics of the negotiations could become interesting if the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa) manages to recruit the required number of Telkom members to allow it to participate in the negotiations.
Salary negotiations at ArcelorMittal will follow on the heels of a retrenchment process. The selfsame militant Numsa is the largest union at Mittal. However, 2016’s talks at the Metal and Engineering Industries Bargaining Council indicate a strike in the steel and manufacturing sector is unlikely.
Eskom’s salary negotiations will start in April. In addition to the rivalry between Numsa and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), Eskom is under financial pressure for various reasons, some beyond management control.
The expectations of Numsa and NUM members are higher than what Eskom can afford to offer, and it is possible that Eskom will table counter-demands, such as the termination of certain benefits and the reduction of staff, in a bid to effect savings to fund a salary increase.
Negotiations in the petroleum sector of the National Bargaining Council for the Chemical Industry will start in the second week of May. These are expected to be tough because of the increase formula agreed on as part of the previous multiyear agreement, which has resulted in unforeseen low increases. Unions are now under pressure to correct this.
Furthermore, Inzalo, the employee share ownership scheme at Sasol, comes to an end on May 18. The employer has already indicated that workers may not receive dividends. However, there is an expectation among workers that they will be a R250,000 richer — an unrealistic expectation that is not being properly managed by Sasol.
It also does not help Sasol’s cause that its new empowerment scheme, Sasol Khanyisa, which will be implemented on June 1, has already led to a dispute between the company and Solidarity due to its racially based benefit distribution. Workers were inclining towards a strike, and Sasol is adding fuel to the fire.
Negotiations in the gold sector are set to commence in June. This will once again be a platform where the NUM and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) can continue their rivalry.
Like 2017, this year is likely to be characterised by retrenchments in the mining sector, but hopefully mining roleplayers can manage to get those factors that can be controlled, such as poor labour relations, low productivity and regulatory uncertainty, under control to limit the bloodbath.
The militant mining trade unions will have to come to realise that their violent rivalry and regular strikes have contributed to the sad state the sector finds itself in. Even so, Sibanye-Stillwater’s takeover plan for Lonmin, which makes provision for a reduction in Lonmin employees, will be met by fierce resistance from all unions involved.
A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT WOULD BE A VICTORY FOR COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, BUT A STRIKE BY PUBLIC SERVANTS WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC
The NUM leadership election will take place in June, and it is to be hoped that the union’s members elect competent individuals who can restore this once powerful union to its former glory. Amcu president Joseph Mathunjwa has managed to get the union’s national congress and leadership election postponed for two years in response to an internal initiative to get rid of him because of his autocratic management style.
The fight by the South African Federation of Trade Unions (Saftu) to get a seat at the National Economic Development and Labour Council will come to a head in 2018, while Cosatu and the smaller Federation of Unions of SA and National Council of Trade Unions are resorting to foul play at the moment to prevent Saftu’s membership.
Following the retirement of Johan Crouse, the trade union environment will have to brace for the appointment of a political cadre in the influential position of registrar of trade unions at the Department of Labour.
While 2018 could be a tough one for labour relations, credit ratings agencies could bring ideologically driven players in the labour relations environment back to reality with a further downgrade.