Who will be the boss of SA after Sunday?
What an amazing week so far. Suddenly all of the constraints that seemed to bind the police and prosecuting authorities under the Zuma administration appear to have been lifted.
Suddenly the Asset Forfeiture Unit is chasing R50bn in assets and cash, here and offshore, stolen through the Gupta-led state capture conspiracy. President Jacob Zuma’s ally, Richard Mdluli — the suspended head of crime intelligence in the police service — has finally been fired.
Some people say it’s the Ramaphosa effect, the “Cyril Spring”, that has enabled ordinary officers and officials to find the courage to stand up and do their jobs now that Cyril Ramaphosa has succeeded Zuma as leader of the ANC and, soon(ish), will replace him as head of state.
Others counsel caution against overenthusiasm about Ramaphosa. The probes and possible arrests in connection with state capture were set in place a while ago, before the ANC’s December leadership vote, and while the president was still pretty convinced the mother of some of his children, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, would win the race and beat Ramaphosa. This anticorruption drive, say Zuma supporters, is his work, not Cyril’s.
Perhaps it doesn’t matter, but there’s something familiar about all the anticorruption activity, isn’t there? It’s Zuma throwing friends and supporters under the bus again, hoping to save himself.
Sure, Mdluli can go. He was due to retire in 2018 anyway. What if one of the Guptas is arrested and their assets around the world frozen? That friendship is long dead.
There’s obviously Duduzane, Zuma’s son and former Gupta partner, to worry about. Duduzane is in deep trouble but I hear he’s getting the best legal advice money can buy. We’re talking leading criminal lawyers and advocates here. I would put money on him turning state witness should he need to.
Everyone else will too, now that the asset freezes and arrests are near. Eric Wood, Salim Essa, Brian Molefe and Anoj Singh are all lawyered up and ready to, well, blame each other for everything. It is going to be incredibly cathartic for SA.
But that’s all still to come. This weekend will have us on the edge of our seats as well. Will Zuma survive it?
The ANC national executive committee (NEC) is meeting on Thursday and Friday, and on Saturday and Sunday, it meets in the form of a lekgotla, to which government officials are invited. Then, on Tuesday next week, SA’s deputy president and ANC president, Ramaphosa, leads the South African delegation to the annual diplomatic and intellectual summit in Davos, Switzerland.
People who watch the ANC closely are convinced the NEC meeting on Thursday and Friday will vote on whether or not to recall Zuma from the Union Buildings. Someone will stand up and propose a recall. A seconder will be found. Zuma cannot be even mildly guaranteed a majority.
But if he has his way, he’ll be at that meeting, watching hands go up and watching friends betray him. Former ANC presidents are ex officio members of the NEC, though they apparently need to be invited to meetings. Zuma will pitch, invitation or no invitation.
This is all nonsense anyway, say supporters. Zuma has no intention of being rudely recalled and he (genuinely) can’t see why he should be. He wants to deliver a legacymaking state of the nation address to open Parliament in Cape Town early in February. The Zuma camp sees Ramaphosa as essentially crippled by the closeness of the leadership vote and have decided the best thing to do is to help Ramaphosa through the first rough months as he consolidates his position before calling an early general election in, say, September, which the ANC, or even Ramaphosa himself, could then win.
If that sounds patronising, it is, but until Zuma is upended that’s their story.
The Ramaphosa camp, if there is such a thing, is saying no, wait, Zuma can’t survive the weekend. The reason is Eskom. Eskom is bankrupt. It owes R500bn, it hasn’t been able to publish its financial results for the half-year to September 2017 and it doesn’t have enough money to pay January’s salaries.
Unless Zuma goes, and unless the board of Eskom can thus be fired, along with Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown (also lawyering up, surely?) local and international banks are simply going to stop lending it money. The JSE has already threatened to suspend trading in Eskom bonds by the end of January unless it publishes results.
But Eskom can’t publish the truth. The truth would shut it down. Being bankrupt, it is trading illegally. So the only fix is for Zuma to go — and now. Ramaphosa could be president before he takes off for Davos.
On the other hand, Zuma could clear his cabinet of fools in an afternoon and have former deputy finance minister Jabu Moleketi chairing a technically fabulous Eskom board by Thursday. And still be president when Ramaphosa returns from the Alps.
PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE ANC CLOSELY ARE CONVINCED THE NEC MEETING WILL VOTE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO RECALL ZUMA FROM THE UNION BUILDINGS