Ramaphosa weighs his options, carefully
Acabinet reshuffle was the single most lethal tool used by former president Jacob Zuma to assert his authority and neutralise his opponents. It is a critical instrument in the arsenal of the president, and cannot be taken lightly.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s first reshuffle, which could take place at any time, will be instructive. Consultation is said to be a key consideration as he contemplates his first shake-up, already a marked shift from the conduct of his predecessor.
But in the end, it is his prerogative as president. As such, it will reveal his mettle and indicate how he will balance the needs of SA and the ANC with the need to cement his own political power.
Zuma skewed this balance for his personal benefit at the expense of the country and his own party. It was his removal of then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene which led to the exposure of the extent of the capture of the state. This single act began his descent from power, with his own top six officials — who had rallied behind him in the past — warning against the move.
In the aftermath of that reshuffle it emerged that former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas had been offered Nene’s post weeks before his removal — for a cool R600m.
While Zuma removed those opposing his state capture project in the past, the attack on the Treasury was a step too far.
It was also the beginning of the brazen onslaught by the Gupta family as they fought to defend their ill-gotten influence after failing to place their lackey, Des van Rooyen, in charge of the public purse.
Zuma’s next cabinet shakeup simply deepened the crisis. Ramaphosa, former treasurer Zweli Mkhize and then secretary-general Gwede Mantashe all spoke out publicly against his removal of Pravin Gordhan and Jonas. It was allout war after that, climaxing with the bruising battle for the ANC presidency.
Zuma’s failure to consult before that reshuffle worsened the rift between the ANC and its allies, union federation Cosatu and the South African Communist Party. Having witnessed the effect of Zuma’s reshuffles, Ramaphosa is undoubtedly going to tread more carefully — more so due to the very divided leadership he presides over. He is saddled with two hardened Zuma loyalists in the ANC’s top six, and the 80-member national executive committee (NEC) is a far from unified force. He will have to tread carefully to neutralise the “enemy within” the ANC — and there are many.
At the same time he will have to rid the Cabinet of those denting the image of his government due to corruption and state capture allegations, but be careful not to be seen to be purging Zuma loyalists.
Those who have to be axed include people implicated in the Gupta leaks as well as those who just performed deplorably. This includes Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane, implicated in the Vrede dairy project scandal; Public Administration Minister Faith Muthambi, who allegedly leaked sensitive cabinet information to the Guptas; Bathabile Dlamini, for her shocking handling of the social grants saga; and Van Rooyen, whose Gupta links are well documented.
Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba may face the chop, but could be retained in the Cabinet. Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown will be lucky if she retains her seat after her mismanagement of state-owned enterprises and allegations that she too helped facilitate state capture.
Ramaphosa will have to be careful to include the “exiles”, given that he and many of his core supporters have a United Democratic Front background. Bringing alliance partners closer would be a key factor.
The SACP will hold a central committee meeting on Friday, when there is likely to be a report-back on its decision to contest elections on its own. Ramaphosa’s victory at Nasrec in December could curtail its plans to fight elections.
Many SACP leaders were deliberately excluded from the ANC’s NEC, and the party and Cosatu are fighting for a “reconfigured alliance” in which their voices are heard when key decisions such as cabinet reshuffles are taken.
The need to bring the allies back into the fold could see alliance leaders handed cabinet posts.
Above all, the Cabinet Ramaphosa selects will help him lead his party into the 2019 election. His state of the nation address changed the tone and mood in the country for the better, but his party is not out of the woods yet.
He has to ensure that the rigour and energy with which he began his presidency is mirrored by his government. Key to this is bringing in a team that will deliver on the “new dawn” and the visible change he promised South Africans.
Even though the new appointments will only last until next year’s election, Ramaphosa’s choice of ministers will determine whether the euphoria that has gripped the country since Zuma’s ousting is in fact warranted.
No pressure, Mr President.
HE HAS TO ENSURE THAT THE RIGOUR AND ENERGY WITH WHICH HE BEGAN HIS PRESIDENCY IS MIRRORED BY HIS GOVERNMENT