Why a complacent DA could lose Cape Town to ANC
Aweek is a long time in politics. The ANC led by Jacob Zuma could not buy a win in the Western Cape. In contrast, President Cyril Ramaphosa is literally walking his way into the hearts of voters.
In its handling of conflict with Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille, the DA seems to be making every effort to steer voters to the ANC.
February 15 was supposed to be a good day for the DA. Its leaders knew the ANC was on the back foot after getting rid of its rogue president. DA chief whip John Steenhuisen proposed that Mmusi Maimane stand as a presidential candidate in the parliamentary vote.
Perhaps the thinking was that there was a slight chance Ramaphosa would be embarrassed by ANC MPs unhappy about his ascendancy.
Maybe Steenhuisen imagined that some of Zuma’s heavily compromised cabinet ministers would be tempted to revolt during the secret vote for a new presidency.
It is likely DA leaders were hoping to exploit divisions in the ANC after pushing the idea that rifts in the governing party ran deep. But their plan to make life difficult for SA’s new president on his first day in office were scuppered by infighting in the DA.
Had the DA caucus in the City of Cape Town toed the line, they would have rid themselves of De Lille — their version of a rogue leader — in January. But De Lille outmanoeuvred her enemies, winning a stay of execution with one vote.
The DA probably could not bear the thought of losing two big votes in one day and called off the nomination of Maimane as president of SA. For the public, the reasons for the DA leadership wanting to get rid of its mayor are as clear as the ANC’s for ousting Zuma.
De Lille is accused of a muddled bag of charges, from being a bully who embarrasses her peers to a corruption case that is weak at best. Their muddy reasons for wanting to get rid of her are causing all sorts of problems.
If the DA could not convince 25% of its Cape Town caucus to toe the line in an open vote, how is it going to convince the Western Cape voters to support them at the polls in 2019? De Lille has not done herself any favours in her defence. When asked on Eusebius McKaiser’s show on Cape Talk/702 if she knew the businessman making the accusation of corruption against her, she behaved like a petulant child and put down the phone on the host — raising more questions than answers.
The DA’s coloured constituency is distressed, and this spells trouble for the party. In the world of social media and on street corners, rumour, conjecture and conspiracy theories abound.
The prevailing narrative is that De Lille is being pushed out by a group of conservative white, backroom boys. She is seen as snubbing overseas backers of the party — and that is why she has to go.
Many believe DA leaders think that because the party won the City of Cape Town with 60% of the vote, they can push her out without risking control of the city.
This leads to the impression that white party leaders are taking coloured voters for granted — their action against De Lille is seen as a clear expression of this.
The DA seems unable to counter this narrative.
The party seems unaware that voters believe De Lille and Western Cape premier Helen Zille are primarily concerned about middle-class citizens in the city. The party had created a livable city for people who could afford to pay for it and did nothing to change apartheid’s spatial divisions.
De Lille comes across as blind and tone deaf to people demanding rent control to build neighbourhoods for residents of all income levels. Since the DA took control of the city, many working-class residents have been moved to the margins of the city as neighbourhoods gentrify rapidly.
The DA — at city, provincial and national level — appears out of touch with the electorate while it plays party politics during the longest drought in living memory.
The city needs united leadership with a plan, but that seems to have evaporated during the petty back-stabbing in the chambers of the City of Cape Town.
The focus of DA leaders on internal politics instead of the needs of voters gives the ANC in Cape Town an advantage it does not deserve.
While Ramaphosa exercises his right to exercise anywhere in the city, the governing party is on the back foot.
A clear message and a good candidate could put the ANC in the game for the 2019 provincial elections.
The ANC has a tough road ahead. Its membership in the Western Cape has dwindled disastrously since 1994. It will have to win back constituencies such as young coloured professionals and rural coloured workers who voted for the ANC in the first democratic poll.
Convincing urban coloured working-class women, who have never voted for the ANC in large numbers, to abandon the opposition is going to be a hard struggle. A smiling Ramaphosa is not enough. The party has to develop a clear regional message to fit a Western Cape audience, and the organisational capacity to persuade them to switch allegiances.
People with long memories will recall that the ANC did once govern the Western Cape with the help of the now disbanded National Party.
Zille seized the City of Cape Town in a coalition pact — the DA had fewer seats than the ANC at the time.
The African population in Cape Town has grown to 38.6% and the coloured population stands at 42.4% — parity is looming in the city and this situation requires that strategists pay attention to the changing dynamics.
A lethargic, complacent DA needs to deal with the narrative of white masters using black puppets to do their bidding. It needs to find a vision of transformation that is not shaped by those who already have too much. Its opposition to the ANC can no longer define it.
South African politics has undergone a dramatic change in recent weeks. Some parties are aware that it is time to get fit and ready for the 2019 election race. They know they need to be less focused on internal politics and more attuned to the needs of the voters.
The electorate has matured and is long past the stage of being married to political parties — Zuma put an end to that tradition.
IF THE DA COULD NOT CONVINCE 25% OF ITS CAUCUS TO TOE THE LINE, HOW IS IT GOING TO CONVINCE CAPE VOTERS?