ANC polls campaign set to hit turbulence
The ANC’s march towards 2019 will not be smooth, despite the party ticking some of the right boxes as it marks the beginning of the build-up to the crucial national elections.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has acted decisively in seeking to rebuild the economy, beginning with the boards of state-owned enterprises, the reappointment of Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and this week’s suspension of Tom Moyane as the South African Revenue Service (SARS) commissioner.
These moves are likely to have helped stave off an investment ratings downgrade.
Moyane’s removal from SARS is the first step towards rebuilding the tax agency and restoring public confidence in it.
The permanent appointment of a commissioner will be key. While Mark Kingon has been appointed to act in the post, according to the SARS Act he can only do so for 90 days.
Former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas has been widely touted for the post, but that is not a certainty yet. Once a permanent commissioner is appointed, Moyane’s largely discredited executive committee will have to be overhauled, which is also likely to be an arduous task. While SARS has taken the first steps in the right direction, it is still far from recovery.
The announcement by National Director of Public Prosecutions Shaun Abrahams that former president Jacob Zuma will face 16 charges related to the arms deal was welcome news for all but the ANC. Zuma is well known for his legal stonewalling and the ANC has been unable to shake him off, even after his removal as president. In fact, he has been pulled in by the party, with the endorsement of its new leadership, to campaign in KwaZulu-Natal.
This was done before the announcement that he is set to face charges of fraud, corruption, money laundering and racketeering linked to the arms deal. The ANC may therefore find itself running the last legs of its national election campaign with the man campaigning for it on the ground in KwaZulu-Natal alternating his campaign regalia with suits as he sits in the dock during court appearances.
This can hardly be a comfortable situation for Ramaphosa and those in the party who are going all out to convince the electorate that while those in poll position are largely the same people who slept through Zuma’s disastrous presidency, they have now undergone a divine reformation and will in future do things differently.
In addition, there is again likely to be drama outside the court, with the ANC Youth League in the province mobilising support for Zuma.
The ANC starts a national executive committee meeting on Friday, at which it will discuss the status of its Eastern Cape provincial executive committee. The province was a key Ramaphosa backer in the run-up to the Nasrec conference, but the leadership elected at its own messy conference towards the end of 2017 may be disbanded and the election rerun. The pickle for Ramaphosa is that this process will be overseen by Ace Magashule and Jessie Duarte, the Judases in Luthuli House.
The ANC is already battling to manage the fallout of the court setting aside the election of the leadership in the Free State and its largest province, KwaZulu-Natal, with Magashule having appointed loyalists to the provincial task team in his home province.
Tension is also growing between the ANC and its allies in North West, with allegations of corruption against its chairman in the province and Premier Supra Mahumapelo. The National Education Health and Allied Workers Union in the province has called for his head. Its national office was also the first congress movement structure to demand Zuma’s removal. Mahumapelo is facing a revolt from public servants represented by three unions, an issue where Luthuli House will have to step in.
The Life Esidimeni judgment delivered with devastating eloquence by former deputy chief justice Dikgang Moseneke this week, laying bare the vile neglect and negligence of government officials, does not bode well for the ANC in Gauteng, a province that is already at risk.
There have also been rumblings among loyalists of former presidential contender Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma about the apparent watering down of key resolutions from the ANC’s national conference. On land, there was unhappiness about Ramaphosa’s riders on expropriation without compensation — that it should not harm the economy or food security. There was also unhappiness about the ANC caucus in Parliament withdrawing its motion on the ownership of the Reserve Bank at Nene’s prompting. The caucus had scheduled the debate in the middle of a visit to the country by Moody’s Investors Service.
While Ramaphosa has his hands firmly on the wheel in the state, or so it seems, Luthuli House is a different scenario. Although the appointment of former spokesman Zizi Kodwa as head of the presidency at party headquarters may provide some relief, it is not yet clear whether this will be enough to counter the secretariat.
While opposition parties are also floundering, it was not their weakness that propelled the ANC to power in elections since 1994. It was also not the strength of opposition parties that led to the ANC’s loss of three metros in 2016. Rather, it was ANC supporters opting to stay at home instead of turning up for the party.
If Ramaphosa does not get his house — Luthuli House, that is — in order, the decline in support for the party since 2004 will continue and the long slow march to the opposition benches will remain inevitable.
ON LAND, THERE WAS UNHAPPINESS ABOUT RAMAPHOSA’S RIDERS ON EXPROPRIATION WITHOUT COMPENSATION — THAT IT SHOULD NOT HARM THE ECONOMY