Odds on SA depend on Boks travelling better this year
SA’s chances of success in the Rugby Championship depend squarely on their ability to turn the disadvantage brought about by the travel sequence into an advantage by being in contention when they hit home soil later in the competition.
The Championship kicks off this weekend following the same format in terms of the sequence of travel that it has for all six years since Argentina was added to what used to be the Tri-Nations.
Australia and New Zealand play each other in the first two weeks while the Springboks and Pumas cross and recross the Atlantic, then those two teams go to Australasia for the middle phase before the theatre shifts to Argentina and SA in the last fortnight.
It is in a need of a revamp not just because the formula is tired, but also because the persistence with the same sequence of travel from one year to the next may render the competition unfair.
Bok coach Rassie Erasmus touched on it at a media conference last week when he admitted he was thinking of sending some first-choice players straight to New Zealand, thus sitting them out of the Australian leg.
It is unlikely to happen now because of injuries, but if it did happen it would make sense.
The game in New Zealand will always be the biggest on the overseas leg of the Boks’ Championship campaign, but by the time they arrive there they have been from SA to Argentina and back before flying to New Zealand via a week in Australia.
Erasmus knows from when he was a player how debilitating travel to Australasia is.
And when he was playing, the Boks didn’t have to factor in a trip to Argentina, one which is made more difficult by Argentina’s persistence in scheduling the Bok games outside Buenos Aires.
That means an additional flight lopped onto the end of an already arduous journey from Johannesburg via Brazil.
As Erasmus points out, by the time the Boks arrive in New Zealand they have been around the world and back in the space of three weeks.
The All Blacks have had only one journey away from home by that point — the short hop back and forth across the Tasman Sea.
It is hard to argue against Erasmus’ contention that the early travel puts the Boks at a disadvantage when they play New Zealand in New Zealand. They play three overseas games consecutively, which no other team have to do. It happens every year. Though there are logistic challenges, it would make sense for the organisers to change the sequence and give SA the chance to host the middle three matches in the competition every second year.
That would not least be because it might also offer more chance of a change to the depressingly familiar trend of the competition being all wrapped up by the Kiwis before they even get to SA.
Although, mention of the last fortnight of the competition does introduce a point that is possibly being missed.
If the Boks do get it together early on and arrive at the last phase challenging strongly for the trophy, it will be the All Blacks who will be up against it.
There is one small thing that will remain in the Kiwis’ favour regardless of the state of the competition.
They could probably get away with fielding a weakened team against Argentina more easily than SA would in doing the same in Australia.
But what has helped them in previous seasons overcome what should have been the almost impossible challenge of coming to SA for the last game of the competition via Argentina has been the fact that usually by then they had been in the pound seats.
Last year there was a sizeable group of All Blacks already ensconced in their Cape Town hotel by the time the game against the Pumas kicked off in Buenos Aires.
All Blacks coach Steve Hansen effectively did then what Erasmus is proposing to do now. Sending out an advanced guard means you will at least start the game with some fresh players.
It might be less easy, though, for the All Blacks to mix and match their selections if for once the Championship is on the line when they get here instead of the final game being a dead rubber.
That is effectively then what the Boks have to do.
They need to get enough out of the first four matches to ensure that the advantage New Zealand derives from the travel sequence is turned into a disadvantage.
Their already taxing end-ofcompetition trip could become a monster for them if for once the trophy is on the line.