Tiger to roar again after listeria crisis
Outbreak’s effects have been priced in share, says brokerage’s report
Tiger Brands, which lost R1.4bn in revenue in financial 2018 due to listeriosis, looks set to bounce back from the deadly outbreak, with revenue and earnings to rise steadily in the next three years, according to brokerage firm Arqaam Capital.
Tiger Brands, which lost R1.4bn in revenue in financial 2018 due to listeriosis, looks set to bounce back from the deadly outbreak, with revenue and earnings to rise steadily in the next three years, according to brokerage firm Arqaam Capital.
In 2018, the owner of the Koo, Oros and Tastic brands was preoccupied with the consequences of listeriosis, which killed more than 200 people. The outbreak compounded what was already a tough operating environment for the listed packaged-goods company. Tiger Brands still faces litigation for listeriosis-related deaths.
Like other consumer firms in the JSE food producers index, Tiger Brands battled low disposable income, which stifles household expenditure.
The listeriosis outbreak’s effects have already been priced in, Arqaam said in a report released on Monday and written by analysts Detlef Winckelmann and Robin Kowalsky.
It said losses related to the outbreak could amount to R4.7bn, or R29 a share, which was “less than the loss in market value — R10bn or R65 a share — following the listeriosis announcement, through to one week after the last listeriosis update, implying that the potential losses have been fully priced in [in] the share price”.
Speaking after the release of Tiger Brands’ full-year results in November, CEO Lawrence MacDougall said the listeriosis crisis had consumed a significant amount of Tiger Brands senior management’s time and attention “and business performance suffered as a result of this special attention”. Tiger Brands also grappled with rand volatility, drought in the Western Cape and increased competition during the 2018 financial year. But the report said Tiger Brands is expected to grow strongly — but off a low base — in the 2019 financial year. Tiger Brands’ share price is expected to rise to R303 within 12 months.
According to Arqaam, revenue is likely to increase from R28.5bn to R34.9bn in 2021, while earnings per share are expected to hit 21.31c in 2021, compared to 15.87c in 2018. Headline earnings, which slumped 26% in 2018, could rise 16% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020.
“We pencil a high single-digit revenue [growth] of 8.4% in 2019, following a contraction in 2018. We still expect revenue to grow by 8.4% in 2019 mostly due to Enterprise restart, despite continued selling price deflation, pressure on retailer volumes, retailers pushing back on food producer’s pricing to maintain margins, and a constrained consumer environment,” the report said. Tiger Brands’ revenue was down 9% in 2018.
But Arqaam said unfavourable market conditions were likely to persist “in the medium term”, with wheat and maize price inflation expected to grow because of declining global inventories, lower rainfall and higher costs of production in SA.
Real disposable income growth looked set to remain unlikely in 2019 due to limited employment growth, inflation of 4.7%, and a likely rate hike of 25 basis points in the first quarter, it said. Tiger Brands was unlikely to recover the costs from consumers. “A rising cost inflation environment is unlikely to result in strong earnings growth in the [short-to-medium term], as we do not believe that rising costs can be easily passed on to the consumer,” it said.
SA has experienced a period of sustained low economic growth, rising unemployment rates, high inflation and limited real disposable income growth. “In our view, this has driven consumers to become increasingly price conscious, with increased cherry picking,” the report said.
STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH [IS UNLIKELY AS] WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT RISING COSTS CAN BE EASILY PASSED ON TO THE CONSUMER