Spectre of drought puts maize at risk
SA is likely to miss forecasts for maize production for 2019 because dry weather had delayed plantings, and possible frost at the end of the season might hurt the crop, says the Agricultural Business Chamber.
SA is likely to miss forecasts for maize production this year because dry weather has delayed plantings, and possible frost at the end of the season may hurt the crop, the Agricultural Business Chamber said.
The chamber estimated production for the 2018/2019 season at 12.2-million tons. Late summer rains in the Free State and North West provinces mean farmers planted after the optimal window to sow in midDecember, it said on Monday.
By January 11, 60% of the intended area for the North West was planted and the figure was 70% for the Free State, while other regions managed to plant typical areas, the chamber said.
That suggests that the intended area of 2.44-million hectares for maize in the season could fall by about 19% to 1.98million hectares, said Wandile Sihlobo, head of agribusiness research at the chamber.
“This would be almost in line with the area planted during the drought period of the 2015/2016 production year. At that time, SA maize production amounted to 7.8-million tons, turning the country into a net importer, as annual maize consumption is roughly 10.8-million tons.”
SA is Africa’s top maize producer, but profitability has been squeezed after a record crop in 2016/2017, which boosted stockpiles, was followed by another good harvest.
Rainfall in 2015 was the lowest since records began a century before because of an El Niño weather event, with many cities experiencing their highest temperatures on record.
Cape Town is still recovering from its worst drought ever.
The dry weather conditions are raising the spectre of a drought that could be worse than 2016’s, Jannie de Villiers, CEO of Grain SA, a farmers’ lobby group, said last month.
“Some of the scenarios we are facing look even grimmer than the previous drought,” De Villiers said. “If we consider the current crop status planted, late plantings or even no plantings, the farmers and SA are in for a very rough ride in 2019.”