Tax revenue figures in spotlight

This week economists will pay close attention to the preliminary tax revenue figures released by the SA Revenue Service on Monday. .

This week economists will pay close attention to the preliminary tax revenue figures released by the SA Revenue Service (Sars) on Monday.

The release will likely be acting commissioner Mark Kingon’s swansong before Edward Kieswetter takes the helm. Though the revenue agency is targeting R1.3-trillion, the Treasury said in the budget policy review in February it expected Sars revenue figures to show a shortfall of R42.8bn.

Revenue collection has fallen short of budget targets over the past four fiscal years, with 2017’s shortfall amounting to R48.2bn. Collection is driven by the state of the economy, fiscal

policy and administrative efficiency, but under former Sars commissioner Tom Moyane, who was shrouded in controversy, tax compliance was at low levels last seen during the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

The figures also come as unionised Sars employees continue to strike for an 11.4% salary increase while the revenue service is offering 7%.

Monday will also see the release of the Absa purchasing managers index (PMI), which gauges activity in the manufacturing sector. After falling into contractionary territory in January and February, the PMI will likely remain below the neutral 50mark in March — a sign the economy remained weak in the first quarter of the year.

New-vehicle sales have remained in the doldrums for the past five years. In the past four months new vehicles have registered negative year-onyear growth and the March reading, which will also be released on Monday, is expected to be no different. Sales saw contractions of 7.5% and 6.5% in January and February respectively.

On Wednesday, the IMF will release the analytical chapters of its world economic outlook. In October 2018, the fund revised down SA’s growth forecast for 2019 from 1.7% to 1.4% but kept this unchanged in January.