All political parties face the same growth imperatives

There’s only one script for any of our almost 50 political parties that are contesting the sixth polls next week if the country is to get back some of its star billing in the investment world and start breathing confidence into its citizenry and business community.

It actually doesn’t matter who scores the bigger win in this little country at the bottom of Africa that still manages to score a front page in the holy grail of capitalism, The Economist. Our political players will all be faced with the same economic headwinds and structural impediments to higher growth and the ballooning weight of our troubled stateowned enterprises as long as we cannot find a solution to their debt woes.

Be it a stronger or weaker ANC, the risk posed by Eskom in particular has to be dealt with. There has to be delivery of growth-boosting spectrum to boost the price competitiveness of data and in turn get a foothold in the fourth industrial revolution, which we have to do to get on top of the expanding youth unemployment problem.

The ideological differences between our parties matter little in the face of this reality. Markets, and in particular the algorithms that are increasingly replacing bond traders, rule the world. If our political players don’t keep to a strict course of action over the next few years, a script that the disastrous presidency of Jacob Zuma helped craft, whatever ambitions they have for this country will prove impossible.

So, what are we choosing next week? To all intents and purposes in posting that ballot you are choosing men and women who will stick to that script; can the personalities behind those logos be trusted to steer us out of iceberg infested waters?

It seems that every other year there is another major political event that we should look at as a key determinant of our future. The major plays are coming in thick and fast.

And depending on the outcomes of these polls I’d argue regardless of them we will soon be speculating about the next ANC policy conference, where the fightback plans of a disenchanted faction will be revealed.

Should the ANC’s majority reduce and opposition parties cement the gains made in local government elections just three years ago, the biggest fear of business, particularly “big” business, is that the inertia and policy

uncertainty that has constrained investment over the past decade will continue.

It was a period when the hardest sell for any board was a domestic expansion project, and the easiest seeking an entry to developed’ markets such as the UK and Australia. Off they went, questionable strategies and all. So far, the report cards haven t been impressive.

If the reading of our politics isn’t comfortable after these polls, I wonder what growth fixes the big corporates will be selling to their investors, beyond seeking efficiency gains and consolidation, which can only reduce our economic prospects, as they inevitably involve job cuts.

So, for better growth prospects, is it a stronger ANC we need? This has been a rather difficult question for me. Because of the bad governance record it brings to this election and its factional battles, you’d think by the natural laws of a functioning democracy that the ANC deserves a bloody nose.

WHETHER THE ANC GETS A STRONGER OR WEAKER MANDATE NEXT WEEK, THE SCRIPT HAS ALREADY BEEN WRITTEN

Yet President Cyril Ramaphosa and his “new” ANC have done a great job convincing the markets it is the only party that can meet the challenge of the required structural reforms and focus on prudent fiscal policy. His rivals have been more focused on fightback campaigns, with little of substance said about our structural challenges.

In our desperate search for growth to once again break through the modest mark of just 2%, something last achieved some five years ago, should the market desire for certainty be of higher concern than a democratic contest? For capital markets, certainty equals a better investment climate.

Here’s my view: whether the ANC gets a stronger or weaker mandate next week, the script has already been written. There’s little room for whatever government comes in after May 8 to veer off script if a degree of confidence is to return and economic growth is to breach the now magical 2% mark.

The state has precious little room to stimulate the economy outside of enabling increased investment by the private sector. And this includes investment from China, which has many options other than SA.