EU’s centrist parties should not underestimate far-right
Ursula von der Leyen, the German defence minister, might be confirmed as president of the European Commission by the European Parliament on Tuesday.
Or she might not. The betting in Brussels is that she may be able to scrape an absolute majority if she can secure the support of the hard right. The result is hard to predict because the votes will be cast in secret.
Her own group, the
European People’s Party, has said it would, of course, back her. She is also officially supported by Emmanuel Macron’s Renew Europe, and by other liberal parties. But that support last week began to wobble. The Socialists and Democrats are split: the German Social Democrats dislike her, but others are more positive. The Greens and leftists will not vote for her.
Von der Leyen and the other appointees to the EU’s top jobs are all notable in their support for European integration. So why is the European Parliament becoming so critical of her candidacy? Two reasons: the parliament was not consulted, and her hearings last week were not very well received. She did not appear to know much and she did not promise much a bad combination.
Germany’s SPD are probably the most hostile. Von der Leyen is an upperclass Hanoverian, internationally educated, with no obvious accent. From an SPD perspective, she might as well live on a different planet.
Kinder observers might point out that she had only had 10 days to familiarise herself with the complex issues of EU politics. Give her more time. Defence, her specialist subject, is not really at the EU core.
Her political record is mixed. She was instrumental in the fight for boardroom quotas for women, but never built a political power base in her party. While defence minister, the Bundeswehr has turned into one of Europe’s most underfunded armed forces.
There is one very good other reason why MEPs from the centrist parties should think twice before supporting her. She lacks a stable support base in the European Parliament for the next five years. The three centrist parties have 444 seats. In theory, this is a technical majority of about 70 seats, but in EU realpolitik you cannot simply add numbers. If Von der Leyen makes it, it will only be because someone from outside this group supports her.
That number could include nationalists from Hungary, Poland and Italy. They may end up voting for her if only because their prime ministers did so. A weak commission president might suit them how could Von der Leyen push an excessive deficit procedure against Italy if she owes her nomination to the Northern League? Would she be bold enough to pursue legal cases against Poland and Hungary over their failure to uphold democracy and EU values?
The centre-right in the European Parliament is playing a dangerous game. On the one hand, it knows it must rely on the far-right and the populists to support its candidate. On the other, it is trying to shut far-right and nationalist MEPs out from the top jobs in the European Parliament itself. We may end up in a situation where Von der Leyen has a majority tomorrow but no subsequent one to help enact her policies.
We should not underestimate the far-right, despite its relatively poor results in the recent European elections. Yes, its plan A to win big in the elections did not work. But plan B is to exploit divisions in the centre, form tactical alliances, and cause disruption. So far, that plan is working better.
MEPs from the centre should not fall into this trap. If they rejected Von der Leyen, they would certainly trigger howls of protest, but we should remember that this would be the kind of crisis the EU is used to. After some huffing and puffing in the European Council, a new candidate would emerge before long.
If they accept Von der Leyen, they could end up with five years of political gridlock and cause damage to both the European Commission and the European Parliament in the process. I am not sure that this is a political price worth paying for this candidate. / The Financial Times Limited 2019